Our Wednesday News Analysis | How the Gaza war will shape Israel’s future

Monday saw the first hostages handed over in the ceasefire. (AFP)

As early as May last year,
many prioritized the return of the captives over the continuation of the war.
Netanyahu’s eventual concession was not driven by internal pressure
but by the stark realization that he could no longer win.

A headline on The Times of Israel’s blog section said it all: “For the first time, Israel just lost a war.”

Regardless of the reasoning behind this statement, which the article published last week divided into 14 points, it suggests a shattering and unprecedented event in the 76-year history of the state of Israel. The consequences of this realization will have far-reaching effects on Israelis, impacting both this generation and the next. These repercussions will penetrate all sectors of Israeli society, from the political elite to the collective identity of ordinary Israelis.

Interestingly, and tellingly, the article attributes Israel’s defeat solely to the outcome of the Gaza war, confined to the geographical area of the Gaza Strip. Not a single point addresses the ongoing crisis within Israel itself. Nor does it explore the psychological impact of what is being labeled as Israel’s first-ever defeat.

Unlike previous military campaigns in Gaza — which were on a much smaller scale compared to this genocidal war — there is no significant strand of Israeli society claiming victory. The familiar rhetoric of “mowing the grass,” which Israel often uses to describe its wars, is notably absent. Instead, there is a semi-consensus within Israel that the ceasefire deal was unequivocally bad, even disastrous for the country.

The word “bad” carries broad implications. For Israeli National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir, it represents a “complete surrender.” For the equally extremist Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich, it is a “dangerous deal” that compromises Israel’s “national security.”

Read more: How the Gaza war will shape Israel’s future

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ANALYSIS | TRUMP, NOT NETANYAHU, WILL DECIDE WHETHER TO RESTART THE WAR AND WHO WILL GOVERN GAZA

Source: Haaretz
https://www.haaretz.com/israel-news/2025-01-20/ty-article/.premium/trump-not-netanyahu-will-decide-whether-to-restart-the-war-and-who-will-govern-gaza/00000194-803d-ddd4-aff6-e8ff38040000

By Amos Harel
Published January 20, 2025

The hostage deal marks a step toward restoring solidarity between Israel and its citizens and a possible path out of the war. While Netanyahu's government works to confuse the public and Hamas shows off its strength, the future depends on Trump

U.S. President-elect Donald Trump speaks to the media during a press conference at the Mar-a-Lago Club earlier this month.Credit: Scott Olson/Getty Images/AFP

But anyone who bothered to follow the situation in Gaza and who wasn't fooled by Netanyahu's declarations and his propaganda mouthpieces could have guessed long ago that this would be the outcome of the war.

The sad truth is that Israel essentially lost the war on October 7, 2023.

Seeing the chaos in Gaza, as a wild crowd surrounded the car carrying the three female Israeli hostages, made me think that we might be witnessing the beginning of the end. An exit from an accursed war that has shaken the lives of Israelis and Palestinians since Hamas' October 7 massacre may now be emerging: Phase one of the hostage deal has begun and could be successfully concluded in six weeks.

The transition to Phase 2 will clearly be more difficult. It is not at all clear that the leaders of either side are interested in it. And still, it could be that on Sunday we climbed the first rung of the ladder toward completing the deal and ending the war, thanks to Donald Trump's exhortations just days before he is sworn in for a second term as U.S. president.

Hamas sought on Sunday to make a show of force as the Israel Defense Forces withdraw from points of friction across the Gaza Strip and the first three hostages – Doron Steinbrecher and Emily Damari from Kibbutz Kfar Azza and Romi Gonen, who was kidnapped from the Nova music festival – were handed over to the International Committee of the Red Cross.

In the center of Gaza City, several kilometers away from where IDF troops had been operating until a few days ago, hundreds of armed activists emerged. Seemingly, Hamas was displaying both its military power and aspirations for reestablishing civilian government. But this is not yet a fait accompli; other arrangements for the future of the Gaza Strip may be on the agenda within a few months.

Tensions were high on Sunday, as expected, until the last minute when the cease-fire began to be implemented. There is no reason to assume that things will be any different in the coming weeks...

Read more: Analysis | Trump, Not Netanyahu, Will Decide Whether to Restart the War and Who Will Govern Gaza

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HOW LONG WILL IT TAKE AND HOW MUCH WILL IT COST TO REBUILD GAZA?

Source: Time
https://time.com/7207750/how-long-will-it-take-how-much-will-it-cost-to-rebuild-gaza/

By Joseph Krauss / AP
Published January 17, 2025

Palestinians salvage what they can from the rubble in Khan Younis, southern Gaza Strip, on April 8, 2024.Fatima Shbair—AP

Before anything can be rebuilt,
the rubble must be removed — a staggering task in itself.

The U.N. estimates that the war has littered Gaza with over 50 million tons of rubble — roughly 12 times the size of the Great Pyramid of Giza.
With over 100 trucks working full time, it would take over 15 years to clear the rubble away, and there is little open space in the narrow coastal territory that is home to some 2.3 million Palestinians.

Carting the debris away will also be complicated by the fact that it contains vast amounts of unexploded ordnance and other harmful materials,
as well as human remains.

Palestinians in the Gaza Strip are eager to leave miserable tent camps and return to their homes if a long-awaited ceasefire agreement halts the Israel-Hamas war, but many will find there is nothing left and no way to rebuild.

Israeli bombardment and ground operations have transformed entire neighborhoods in several cities into rubble-strewn wastelands, with blackened shells of buildings and mounds of debris stretching away in all directions. Major roads have been plowed up. Critical water and electricity infrastructure is in ruins. Most hospitals no longer function.

And it's unclear when — or even if — much will be rebuilt.

The agreement for a phased ceasefire and the release of hostages held by Hamas-led militants does not say who will govern Gaza after the war, or whether Israel and Egypt will lift a blockade limiting the movement of people and goods that they imposed when Hamas seized power in 2007.

The United Nations says that it could take more than 350 years to rebuild if the blockade remains...

Read more: How Long Will It Take and How Much Will It Cost to Rebuild Gaza?