You Can't Integrate Israel Into the Middle East While Isolating It From Palestinians

The signing of the Abraham Accords on the White House Lawn, last year. Credit: Andrea Hanks

You, the politicians promising an expansion of the Abraham Accords and Israel's integration into the India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor, don't understand that Israel will remain isolated without progress on the Palestinian issue.

Many politicians across the political spectrum ahead of the election repeatedly speak of the vision of Israel's economic integration in the Middle East. IMEC, the economic corridor connecting India with the Middle East and Europe, is a fixture at the heart of this vision. Some warn of the possibility that Saudi Arabia will prioritize routing the corridor through Syria rather than Israel. Others suggest increasing the number of trucks entering from Jordan or investing in rail lines as part of preparation for integration into the project.

However, there's one major contradiction here. These politicians are the very same ones who oppose the establishment of a Palestinian state, support the current policy in the West Bank and Gaza Strip and often present the struggle with Iran as the almost exclusive key to shaping the new Middle East. They act as if weakening Iran is sufficient to turn Israel into a natural partner in the region.

Displaced Palestinian beekeepers harvest honey from beehives at al-Dabba family bee farm in Gaza City on Saturday. Credit: Jehad Alshrafi/AP

It's an illusion. Israel cannot continue holding both ends of the stick. Any significant regional integration, and certainly integrating into strategic projects like IMEC, also depend on its ability to alter its relations with the Palestinians. Saudi Arabia has no incentive to provide Israel with such a strategic and economic win as long as the Palestinian issue remains unaddressed.

Moreover, even before we talk about IMEC, we should realize that we shouldn't take for granted even existing regional assets. While peace treaties with Egypt and Jordan are stable, they are under growing public and political pressure as long as the war in Gaza and the situation in the West Bank continue. Before dreaming about new economic corridors, it is worth confirming that the foundations upon which Israel's foreign policy rests are at risk.

The unpreparedness of Israeli politicians to tell the truth to the public regarding this issue is nothing new, but now it's more obvious than ever. Israel can't continue its current policy regarding the Palestinians and expect full regional economic integration and also deeper cooperation with additional countries, including in Europe. The strategic reality is more complex than election campaign slogans.

The idea of "economic peace" and conflict management, which has been presented over the years as an alternative to a political deal, has failed to create the desired breakthrough. Moreover, it's liable to distance Israel from regional integration rather than to bring it closer to it. The promises of expanding the Abraham Accords and connecting Israel to Saudi Arabia and the Gulf states are often repeated as if they were inevitable developments. However, there is no factual basis for this without altering policy.

U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio with heads of Gulf states, in New York in September. Credit: Stefan Jeremiah / AFP

If the next government really wants to see Israel integrated into projects like IMEC, it must understand that the key isn't only in Tehran's hands but also in Jerusalem, Ramallah and Gaza. The last confrontation with Iran may have highlighted Israel's military capabilities, but it also demonstrated to many in the region how regional instability is liable to damage their interests. Moreover, Saudi Arabia's official positions in recent years continue to stress that any significant progress in normalization depends on real progress on the Palestinian issue.

Of course, Israel can always choose a policy of annexation and continuing the status quo. This choice is politically legitimate. However, the public deserves to hear the truth: Such a policy has a price. It is liable to make it harder for Israel to be integrated into regional projects, to increase its isolation on several fronts and to turn the vision of economic integration to an electoral promise that doesn't hold up in practice.

You can't promise the public both continuation of the current policy toward the Palestinians and integration into the new Middle East. At least for now, these two promises do not dovetail with each other.

The writer is a senior researcher in the Iran and the Shi'ite Axis Program at the Institute for National Security Studies.