Analysis Trump Isn't Fostering a Cease-fire Deal – He's Washing His Hands of Gaza

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and U.S. President Donald Trump at their meeting at Mar-a-Lago, Tuesday night. Credit: Jonathan Ernst/Reuters

"Ashem iblis biljanna" is a popular Egyptian expression that means "pipe dreams." That is exactly how things stand right now for those still pinning their hopes for the future of the Gaza Strip and the Palestinians in the coming year on U.S. President Donald Trump.

The optimistic voices, or at least those with the wherewithal to see a ray of hope, tend to focus on what is happening "behind closed doors" and largely ignore what's being said outside them: The praise showered by Trump on Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on Monday, his almost complete adoption of the argument regarding Hamas disarmament as a condition for any change in Israeli control and his explicit threats against the organization if it does not surrender.

Trump used the expression "there's no smoke without fire" in relation to Iran and the possibility of an Israeli attack if the Islamic Republic again engages in a military buildup. But the same expression can also apply to the Gaza Strip. If Trump were really seeking a meaningful settlement, the conduct on the ground and in the political discourse would look completely different.

Those with sharp eyes and ears understand that the president, consciously or not, ignores the details. He talks in headlines – peace in the Middle East, improving the situation in Gaza, humanitarian aid, and regional stability. These are grand slogans, but empty of practical content. When he is asked for the particulars, he is quick to answer that "Steve and Jared will handle it," referring to his Middle East Envoy Steve Witkoff and son-in-law Jared Kushner.

Anyone who is seriously pursuing a diplomatic process doesn't shy away from the details – he decides them. And it is precisely here, with Witkoff and Kushner, that the extent of the void is revealed.

The fundamental questions remain unanswered: Is disarmament in the Strip a consideration in exchange for a complete Israeli withdrawal, or is this a unilateral demand that will enable long-term Israeli control? Will the international stabilization force, if it is indeed formed, be a policing force to secure law and order, a classic peacekeeping force that prevents friction and enables a diplomatic process to take place or a force whose operational mandate includes confonting with armed groups and managing an explosive security situation?

Hamas militants in the Gaza Strip during the release of the hostages, in October. Credit: Ramadan Abed/Reuters

And if such a force is formed, who will supervise it, how long will it be deployed in Gaza, and when will it begin operations? Above all, what will be the role of the Palestinian Authority – in, out, or a footnote when the organizers need to present a "responsible Palestinian address"?

As long as these questions remain unanswered, no one can talk about a diplomatic process but about management of the conflict, not about a vision, but about foot-dragging.

In Gaza and the entire Palestinian arena, people are aware of this. They understand that 2026 is shaping up to be a year of the status quo, one of only cosmetic change that will not threaten the continued rule of Netanyahu and enable Trump to keep saying "things have changed."

A barefooted displaced Palestinian toddler walks in a refugee camp in Gaza City on Sunday. Credit: Omar Al-Qattaa/AFP

What that means is that Israel will continue to hold on to 53 percent of the Gaza Strip and perhaps expand that to 60 percent. If there is any clearing of rubble or change in governance, it will be under Israeli auspices. If a stabilization force of one kind or another is established, it will operate only on a pilot basis in designated areas.

Netanyahu will be able to claim he made no concessions, and Trump can point to progress. The Palestinians will find themselves trapped between Hamas and Israeli rule, both under America's aegis, with no commitment to a withdrawal and no diplomatic exit. This is not the path to peace and stability.

Thus, from week to week and month to month, Israel will be immersed in an election campaign, and the Palestinians will be immersed in a reality of occupation in the Gaza Strip and perhaps the de facto annexation in the West Bank. This is the reality as evidenced by the facts on the ground, without illusions and without dreams. Happy New Year.