Our Friday News Analysis | How Do You Love Your Enemies? Have None! (Part 2)

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From India, the Center of Gravity between East and West, North and South

The Hague, 27 April 2023 | If you know of any story that is decisive, tell the world. We're still searching.

XI AND ZELENSKY SPEAK IN FIRST KNOWN CONTACT SINCE RUSSIA’S INVASION

Ukraine’s president, Volodymyr Zelensky, had long requested a call with China’s leader, Xi Jinping. Beijing has not criticized the invasion by Moscow, its close partner. Here is what we’re covering:

          • Zelensky says the conversation with Xi was ‘long and meaningful.’

          • Xi’s language in the call underscores China’s close ties to Russia.

          • Zelensky tailors his message to China but remains firm on territorial restoration.

          • The US and France welcome the Xi-Zelensky call, but Washington underlines its skepticism.

          • Ukraine has nearly all the combat vehicles allies promised, NATO’s military commander says.

          • Russia escalates its economic standoff with the West, seizing assets of two European energy firms.

Read more: ‘Xi and Zelensky Speak in First Known Contact Since Russia’s Invasion,’ by Vivian Wang and David Pierson, New York Times, 26 April 2023.

UKRAINE’S RISKY COUNTER-OFFENSIVE

Source: New York Times

By Amelia Nierenberg

Published 25 April, 2023

US officials say Ukraine is preparing a new offensive against Russian forces that could begin next month. The stakes are incredibly high: Western support could weaken without a decisive victory, and Kyiv could face pressure to hold peace talks.

The operation is likely to unfold in the south, near Russian-annexed Crimea. Twelve Ukrainian brigades, each with about 4,000 troops, are expected to be ready this month, leaked US documents show.

The State of the War

Spring Offensive: Ukraine is preparing to launch a counter-offensive against Russian forces in the face of immense risks. Without a decisive victory, Western support for Ukraine could weaken. Kyiv could be pressured to enter serious peace talks to end or freeze the conflict.

In the South, Ukrainian officials said Russian troops are forcibly relocating people from occupied areas near Kherson as fighting there intensifies.

Grain Supplies: When Russia’s war blocked vitally needed Ukrainian grain exports, EU officials succeeded in finding other routes. But the solution has caused discontent among European farmers.

Ukrainian officials have said their goal is to break through dug-in Russian defenses and push Russia’s army to collapse. But American officials believe that it is unlikely the offensive will result in a dramatic shift in momentum in Ukraine’s favor.

US and European officials say Russia is preparing new troop mobilizations to bolster its military ranks. Given Russia’s more extensive reserves of equipment and personnel, US intelligence officials say President Vladimir Putin believes he will ultimately emerge victorious as the West’s appetite to support Ukraine subsides.

Quotable: “Everything hinges on this counter-offensive,” said Alexander Vershbow, a former US ambassador to Russia and senior NATO official, both for recovering territory and having leverage in peace negotiations.

Read more: Ukraine’s risky counter-offensive, By Amelia Nierenberg, Morning Briefing: Asia Pacific Edition, New York Times, 25 April 2023.

What is the Side of the Story that is Not Yet Decisive? Edited by Abraham A. van Kempen, featuring Russian philosopher-soldier Andrey Korobov-Latintsev and Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov. On Monday, Mr. Lavrov sparred against the United States and its allies at the UN Security Council, warning that their aggression and bullying have brought the world to a “dangerous threshold.” Meet his US and UK counterparts who vehemently disagree with this Point Versus Counterpoint.

ANALYSIS | WHAT IS KNOWN ABOUT THE STATUS OF UKRAINE'S MUCH-HYPED 'COUNTER-OFFENSIVE' AGAINST RUSSIA?

Source: RT

By RT staff

Published April 25, 2023

The West has pumped Kyiv with modern armaments and trained tens of thousands of its troops

FILE PHOTO: Russian Airborne Forces service members take part in combat training for assault teams during Russia's military operation in Ukraine. © RIA News / Sputnik

How ready is the Ukrainian army for a counter-offensive?

So far, Ukraine's planned military assault, initially announced for November 2022, has been postponed indefinitely. Foreign sources differ in their assessment of Kyiv's readiness for a counterattack against Russia and agree that it is difficult for the Ukrainians to gather enough boots on the ground.

What is stopping the Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU) from advancing now?

One of the main problems preventing the AFU from carrying out the announced offensive is a lack of experienced personnel.

A large portion of the combat-ready, equipped, and motivated cadre units of the AFU (as well as the NGU and Territorial Defense) have already been destroyed in Mariupol, Artemovsk, Soledar, Popasnaya, Lysychansk, Severodonetsk, and during the battles in the Kherson and Kharkiv regions in the summer of 2022. Meanwhile, a new grouping of equal professionalism and equipment levels has not yet been formed. However, NATO and US officials differ in their estimates of the number of AFU formations.

US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin said after the Rammstein Contact Group meeting earlier this year that Western countries had prepared nine armored brigades. This figure is questionable, however, as at least 837 tanks would be needed for that deployment size. After Rammstein, Austin reported deliveries of 230 battle tanks, suggesting a deliberate misrepresentation of the size of the Ukrainian group.

How many reserves has the AFU built up?

Michel Goya, a French army colonel and renowned expert on modern warfare and combat innovation, estimates that no more than three or four Ukrainian brigades could realistically be trained and armed by NATO and the US in the time frame allowed.

At the same time, the recently popular estimate that Ukraine had assembled 200,000 reservists looks doubtful since, in this case, the AFU forces would have to exceed the combined US and NATO forces at the time of the invasion of Iraq in 2003 by 30,000-40,000 (at that time it was 160,000). The most likely figure is 80,000-100,000 trained inside and outside Ukraine since Russia's military operation began. There is an important caveat, however. Apart from the combat experience and capabilities of the grouping, it is unclear which forces are the combat-ready vanguard and which are support units (the so-called "tooth-to-tail" ratio). If the AFU plans an offensive like the US in Iraq, only 20,000 of the 100,000 troops assembled are combat-ready. The rest are support and sustainment forces.

What difficulties does the AFU face?

The conceptual problem of the offensive is the lack of surprise. AFU units are awaited from all directions – from Artemovsk to Kherson, so it is complicated to surprise Russian forces in such a situation. Moreover, the movements of the Ukrainian army are well monitored, and it is almost impossible to accumulate a group of 20,000-150,000 troops unnoticed in such conditions. If they abandon massing their soldiers and spread the forces across the front, all the advantages of large numbers are lost.

An additional difficulty is time

Delaying an offensive means not only guaranteeing the loss of Artemovsk/Bakhmut, which is being cleared at the rate of two or three blocks every 24 hours but also disrupting the plans of foreign partners and nullifying all the financial and military aid provided so far. Moreover, every day the AFU's offensive is delayed is an extra day for the Russian army to prepare and reinforce.

Another difficulty is the offensive reserves.

Troops for an attack are divided into vanguards and reserves, deployed at the point of the front where a breakthrough is planned. If the ground forces of the AFU are prepared for this, then the strength of any grouping in any direction can be safely divided into two. If the first wave of the AFU offensive falters, there may be no chance of a second. Repair battalions and a significant amount of reserve equipment must be ready for the offensive – this is impossible, given the total dependence on imports from the West.

Slow delivery of foreign equipment is also an issue.

Although Bradley BMPs and Leopard 2 tanks are already in Ukraine, the equipment is only enough to equip one or two mechanized brigades (6,000-7,000 men). The rest will receive light armored vehicles whose survivability in a high-intensity conflict is minimal.
Further, deliveries of Western air defense systems, essential to any major offensive, are either severely delayed, only arriving in the form of Stinger and Starstreak man-portable air defense systems or short-range SAMs such as the Avenger and Stormer HMVs.

The main technical difficulty is the lack of significant numbers of attack aircraft and air superiority

The Ukrainian air defense system is still in place and functioning, but the stationary air defense systems are getting worse at dealing with missile attacks and cannot be re-assigned for the offensive. The number of operational fighters and attack aircraft in the Ukrainian Air Force is unknown. Still, a significant proportion of these could be shot down by the Russian Air Force at the start of the operation.

What if the AFU does not stage a counter-offensive now?

The AFU attack will likely be postponed to a later date, by which time both equipment and men will have gathered in sufficient numbers. In addition, the weather is forcing adjustments – it makes no sense to advance in rainy and muddy conditions. The results of reckless attempts to attack are visible in Artemovsk, where most of the roads are littered with wrecked AFU equipment.

RUSSIA’S LAVROV SPARS WITH WESTERN OFFICIALS AT UN

© Russian Foreign Ministry via Sputnik

In a contentious meeting at the Security Council, the Russian foreign minister attempted to deflect criticism of his country’s invasion of Ukraine

               “Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov squared off against the United States and its allies at the UN Security Council on Monday, warning that their aggression and bullying have brought the world to a “dangerous threshold.”

               Russia, which this month holds the rotating council presidency, called the meeting on “Defense of the Principles of the U.N. Charter” in an apparent attempt to switch the global narrative from criticism of its invasion of Ukraine — which the West has said is a gross violation of international law — to charges that the United States is making all the rules at the expense of other nations.

Read more: Russia’s Lavrov Spars with Western Officials at UN, by Karen de Young, Washington Post, 24 April 2023.

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WION News | Russia's foreign minister Sergey Lavrov chairs UN Securities Council meeting amid Ukraine war

               Kyiv's allies on Monday slammed Russia for a Security Council meeting chaired by Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov about protecting the United Nations charter, which Moscow allegedly violated by invading Ukraine.

LAVROV AT UN: RUSSIAN FOREIGN MINISTER OUTLINES WESTERN MINORITY'S PLACE IN A MULTILATERAL WORLD

Source: RT

https://www.rt.com/russia/575281-lavrov-un-security-council/

By RT staff

Published April 24, 2023

The Ukraine conflict is about the future of global order, the senior diplomat told the UN Security Council

Amid a storm of protest from the US and its allies and a ban on Russian journalists from traveling to New York, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov chaired Monday’s session of the UN Security Council.

The meeting was dedicated to “effective multilateralism,” as Moscow emphasized its intentions to help change the world order. In his opening remarks, LAVROV outlined the nature of the current conflict, which he said was between the UN Charter and the “rules-based order” of the collective West.

Lavrov also noted that the US had effectively denied visas to his accredited media pool, a move to which Moscow has vowed to respond to in such a way as “to make Americans remember that things should not be done in such a fashion.”

Crisis of the world order

The UN-centric system is going through a deep crisis caused by some members’ desire to replace international law with their “rules-based order,” Lavrov insisted. Such “rules” are invented ad hoc and applied to stop independent development. They are enforced through means ranging from military force to embargoes, financial sanctions, the confiscation of property, “destruction of critical infrastructure” – likely a reference to the sabotage of the Nord Stream gas pipelines – and “manipulation of universally agreed norms and procedures.”

The World Trade Organization (WTO) has been paralyzed, market mechanisms have collapsed, and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) has been turned into “an instrument for achieving the objectives of the US and its allies.”

Globalization and its enemies

               “In a desperate attempt to assert its dominance by punishing the disobedient, the US has moved to destroy globalization, which for many years it extolled as the greatest good of all mankind,” said the Russian foreign minister.

Now the US and its allies blacklist anyone who dissents from their “golden billion.” The US proclaims to the rest of the world: “Those who are not with us are against us.”

Yet the “Western minority” has no right to speak for the entire world, Lavrov said. Its “rules-based order” amounts to a rejection of sovereign equality, the fundamental principle of the UN Charter, as evidenced by EU commissioner Josep Borrell’s infamous statement about the European “garden” and the “jungle” outside it.

Gross violations of the UN Charter

In addition to the string of US military “adventures” from Yugoslavia and Iraq to Libya, Lavrov said the worst violation of the UN Charter was its meddling in the affairs of post-Soviet states. As examples, he brought up the “color revolutions” in Georgia and Kyrgyzstan and the 2014 coup in Kyiv. When the UN sought to stop the ensuing war by endorsing the Minsk Agreements, they were “trampled by Kyiv and its Western masters. Recently they cynically and proudly admitted that they never intended to fulfill them but only wanted to buy time to pump Ukraine with weapons against Russia,” the foreign minister added.

What the Ukraine conflict is about

Today “it is clear to everyone” that the Ukraine conflict isn’t about Ukraine at all, but “about how international relations will be built: through crafting a stable consensus based on a balance of interests, or through the aggressive and explosive promotion of hegemony,” Lavrov said. He added that Russia has “honestly said what we are fighting for” in Ukraine. Its military operation aims to eliminate the threat to its security posed by NATO and protect the people whose rights recognized by international conventions have been systematically violated by a regime that seeks to “expel and exterminate” them.

How to Save the UN

The West has made a “brazen attempt to subjugate” the UN by taking over its secretariats and other international institutions, Lavrov told the Security Council. Washington and its allies have abandoned diplomacy and demanded a battlefield showdown within the halls of the UN, created to prevent the horrors of war. Genuine multilateralism “requires the UN to adapt to objective trends” of emerging multipolarity in international relations, the Russian foreign minister argued. The Security Council should be reformed to increase the representation of Africa, Asia, and Latin America, as the current “exorbitant overrepresentation” of the West “undermines the principle of multilateralism.”

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Gravitas: China's Xi to send a diplomat to Ukraine to broker peace with Russia

Click here to watch the video (9 minutes)

               “China is sending diplomats to Ukraine to try to broker a peace deal between Kyiv and Moscow.

               This comes after Chinese President Xi Jinping held an hour-long phone call with Ukraine's Zelensky.

               Molly Gambhir brings you the details.”

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Editor's Note |

Peace is like a ‘tug-of-war,’
with constant give and take,
not reckless armed conflict
with plausible nuclear confrontation.

               “Real and sustainable peace begins in the mind, heart, will, and soul because peace arises from genuine appreciation and respect for the other.

               Peace is a conscious decision to improve relations, do everything possible to overcome tensions and misunderstandings, and, if possible, even become friends.

               Peace is the fruit of love. It is give and take, a dance with life for life.”

van Kempen, Abraham A. Christian Zionism ... Enraptured Around a Golden Calf - 2nd Edition: Evangelicals Rediscovering New Testament Revelations (p. 37). Fast Pencil Publishing. Kindle Edition.

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Our Wednesday News Analysis | 'The Israeli right’s most dangerous anti-Palestinian smear,' 26 April 2023.

The Evangelical Pope| 'A Most Worthy Task,' 24 April 2023.

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Next Week

Donbas soldier Andrey Korobov-Latyntsev: Here's my chilling warning about where the Russia-Ukraine conflict can lead

Source: RT
https://www.rt.com/russia/574531-the-philosophy-of-violence-and-war/

By Andrey Korobov-Latintsev, an officer of the People’s Militia of the Donetsk People’s Republic
Published April 14, 2023

An academic turned fighter believes those who think the fighting can be contained are misguided

A serviceman of Russia's private military company Wagner Group's assault detachment walks in the street in the central part of Artyomovsk, also known as Bakhmut, as Russia's military operation in Ukraine continues, Donetsk People's Republic, Russia. © Sputnik/Evgeny Biyatov

Donetsk People’s Republic, 14 April 2023 | For a philosopher, the military path of war is quite natural. In reality, such a scholar is constantly engaged in this process – the conflict of ideas. He understands that war is the forefather of all things. Since he is looking for the origin of everything, turning to war as a subject and an element of existentialism is natural. Of course, it is also a great honor for me to be part of the armed forces of Novorossiya and the Donetsk People’s Republic.

Read more: ‘Donbas soldier Andrey Korobov-Latyntsev: Here's my chilling warning about where the Russia-Ukraine conflict can lead.’

The views expressed are solely those of the author and may or may not reflect those of the Building the Bridge Foundation, The Hague.