Analysis | Trump Pushes to End Gaza War, but Netanyahu Resists for Symbolic Victory

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu meets with IDF reservists in Jerusalem on Monday.Credit: Maayan Toaf/GPO

If anyone wondered whether Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu intends to accept the heavy American pressure to end the war in Gaza, a pretty clear answer came on Tuesday: not just the distribution of militant messages about the intention to expand the war, but also an attempt to kill the top figure of Hamas in Gaza, Mohammed Sinwar, who is also the man who will decide on the negotiations on a hostage deal.

"Netanyahu will not end the war without a perceptual achievement as far as he is concerned, which involves an element of Hamas' surrender," said a senior government official. That more than hints at the answer to whether he is prioritizing the hostages' return over other motives.

The scene of the attack on Hamas leader Mohammed Sinwar in Khan Yunis, Gaza, on Tuesday.Credit: Hatem Khaled/Reuters

If the assassination attempt on Mohammad Sinwar was successful, the question that arises is what perceptual achievement Netanyahu is now seeking to achieve, and how many hostages will pay with their lives for it. It is tempting to err on the side of naive optimism that killing Sinwar, the brother, will check this box.

But reality suggests otherwise. In response to Trump's rush for a Saudi deal, Netanyahu has made it clear he is hardening his position. Edan Alexander's release won't necessarily prompt him to free other, unlucky hostages who don't hold U.S. passports. As for ongoing negotiations, the prime minister is pushing a plan no longer viable for its original architect, Steve Witkoff. The aim: to secure the release of a group of hostages in exchange for a temporary cease-fire, without ending the war.

The government believes that even if Trump dislikes Netanyahu's aggressive stubbornness, he will not take any serious action, such as placing an arms embargo on Israel or taking measures at the U.N. Security Council. Witkoff already admitted in conversation with the hostage families that "we won't replace your government or dictate its actions."

U.S. President Donald Trump in Saudi Arabia on Tuesday.Credit: Alex Brandon/AP

Even if Trump has snubbed Netanyahu lately with the negotiations regarding Iran's nuclear program, with the Saudi deal and with the release of hostage Edan Alexander, he needs Netanyahu's obedience to achieve the goal of ending the war. Whether there is a coordinated move between the two for violent negotiations, or whether Trump is truly angry with Netanyahu and pressuring him behind the scenes, for now, he is cooperating with him without protesting too loudly.

Standing together

On Tuesday, the attorney general and the IDF, without coordination, according to sources familiar with the details, released two announcements that were different in content and even in essence, but both useful in indicating where the wind is blowing on the issue of ultra-Orthodox conscription.

The IDF Spokesperson's Office announced a campaign to enforce draft orders, which yielded rather poor results, using vague and cowardly wording about "enforcement operations aimed at the entire population." Nonetheless, the announcement was intended to signal that the IDF does not intend to adhere to the sweeping policy of not enforcing draft orders against the ultra-Orthodox.

The attorney general's announcement was far more direct, detailed and purposeful. Along with data indicating the extent of ultra-Orthodox non-compliance with the measures taken, she sets forth a measure in which all the agencies responsible for Israel's security and economy are standing together against the government's behavior on the issue.

Members of the ultra-Orthdox community protest the draft in Jerusalem in April.Credit: Olivier Fitoussi

The announcement includes a summary of a meeting between senior IDF officers and Finance Ministry officials and conclusions, beginning with an emphasis on the army's urgent need for more manpower as well as reducing the military, economic and legal burden of reserve duty on the general population. It also states a commitment to continue discussing practical means to change the situation.

The announcement's most interesting line, which justifiably made the headlines, is the intention to issue draft orders in the next call-up year to all eligible conscripts, an estimated 60,000 men. Meanwhile, the attorney general is steadily ramping up legal efforts on the matter, in parallel with a High Court of Justice order demanding the government explain why it is not drafting ultra-Orthodox men and why existing draft orders are not being enforced.

Whether the measure will significantly expand ultra-Orthodox conscription remains uncertain, at least in the short term. But the playing field is shifting: instead of 24,000 men eligible for conscription this year, where evasion constitutes a criminal offense, the entire target population will fall under that status in the next draft year. This change is likely to prompt greater enforcement and could carry legal consequences, including financial sanctions such as the denial of housing and small business benefits.

Given Netanyahu's aggressive motives in Gaza and his apparent intention not to end the war, the ultra-Orthodox can forget about the conscription exemption law, despite their threats. "Netanyahu would prefer going to elections over the conscription exemption law crisis rather than over ending the war in defeat," says a coalition source.