Our Friday News Analysis | What the World Reads Now!

Haaretz Cartoon, August 6, 2024 Credit: Amos Biderman

Yoana Gonen

Haaretz Israel | Opinion
7August 2024

“Under the camouflage of a farewell speech, Hiram, in effect, spread before us his vision for the future Israel, a Spartan state where the inhabitants live by the sword,
nobody leaves or enters,
and nobody opens their mouth and scoffs.”

The story of the shelling of hostages being held by terrorists in a house in Kibbutz Be'eri on October 7 has yet to die down, and it looks as though Brig. Gen. Barak Hiram, who commanded the tank force that fired the shells, is already determined to arouse another uproar – this time armed only with demagoguery and rhetoric, thankfully.

His speech at the ceremony marking his departure from the Israel Defense Forces' 99th Division this week, was a magical mixture of proto-fascist nightmare with the arrogant touch of a counselor in the Bnei Akiva religious youth movement.

Like Yinon Magal and Orit Strock before him, Hiram also sees the ongoing horrifying disaster that has been taking place since October 7 as a period of spiritual uplift, a kind of reeducation camp for Israeli society, from which it will emerge even more chauvinistic, racist and messianic than it already was – it's unclear whether it will be a fortified stronghold or a closed psychiatric ward.

That wasn't a mistake or a Freudian slip: Hiram, a resident of the West Bank settlement of Tekoa, deliberately chose to turn his words into a heavy artillery assault against "the Israeli culture that has developed here, which wants everything now, to make an 'exit' … to be lighthearted and energetic, divorced from the commitments of its past and the burden of its future and mainly devoting itself to the moment."

Even without using the regular code words for Israeli secular liberalism such as "espresso" and "empty wagon," we all understand that it's another disgustingly condescending description of the secular community, leftists, and anyone whose hobbies don't include perpetual war and the occupation of land.

"Our enemies recognized this and believed it would be a good time to destroy us," explained Hiram. In other words, those people and their spineless culture and their desire to live are to blame for the October 7 failure.

In reality, of course, Hiram is one of those responsible for the failure as an IDF commander. Israel's precarious situation at the time had less to do with high-tech exits and a disconnect from the past and more with a gang of corrupt fanatics who came to power and started to storm institutions of democracy, loot the public coffers, and set fire to the diplomatic arena.

Whatever the case, you'll be happy to hear that all the death, suffering, and fear were worth it because they redeemed the rotten nation and restored it to God: "Through the superficial covering of pleasure and debauchery, the ancient values and beliefs are coming to the surface, those which unite us all and turn us into the eternal people," said Hiram.

The IDF's 99th Division commander, Barak Hiram, in May. Credit: IDF Spokesperson's Unit

In other words, the bloody war has peeled off every vestige of joy and hope from Israel, and now we're on the way to fulfilling Hiram's vision and turning into a lovely oasis of theocracy and militarism. Hooray!

Continue reading …

SEYMOUR HERSH | NETANYAHU’S ASSASSINATION SPREE

Killings by Israel in Lebanon and Iran risk dragging the US and the Middle East into a regional war.

Vice President Kamala Harris and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu arrive for a meeting in the vice president’s ceremonial office at the Eisenhower Executive Office Building in Washington on July 25. / Photo by Roberto Schmidt/AFP via Getty Images.

By Seymour Hersh

Substack.com
5 August 2024

The United States and the Middle East are now enduring a crisis that can partly be traced to President Joe Biden's failed foreign policies, who will be in office, barring unforeseen events, for six more months. The core issue has been Biden’s inability to understand the recklessness and depravity of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, whose hatred of Palestinians has now brought the Middle East and America to the brink of a war that is neither desired nor necessary. Biden also has failed to seek a negotiated settlement to the war Russia, led by Vladimir Putin, is now in the process of winning against Ukraine.

Biden’s failures will soon fall to Vice President Kamala Harris, who has a clear path to be nominated by acclaim at the Democratic convention later this month. She has yet to indicate any disagreement with the peril the Biden policies have created, although if ever there was a time for her to speak out, this is it.

The fault is not only Biden’s. The majority of Democrats and Republicans in Congress routinely vote to send billions of dollars to support a corrupt and failing government in Ukraine and similarly approve the bombs and tank shells supplied to Israel for use in Gaza. Hamas, which was financed for years by Qatar at Netanyahu’s behest, is far from defeated, and it is now clear that Netanyahu has been the one resisting a ceasefire there, despite pressure—or rather, pleading—from the Biden White House.

There were signs of Netanyahu’s irrationality from the beginning, which were ignored. After the horror of the Hamas attack last October 7, the Israeli leadership was cautioned by a senior American who had been rushed to Israel not to retaliate with a massive bombing attack.

Instead, the Israelis were advised to announce that a response was coming. Still, they would be withheld if Hamas immediately returned the 240 hostages, many of them in the Israeli Defense Forces, who had been seized. Even if the proposal failed, the anticipated failure of the Hamas leadership to respond was seen, optimistically, as a possible mitigating factor for the White House and its allies, given the violent bombing response that all knew was coming.

Consider it a doomed Hail Mary-pass effort to massage the world’s anger as Gaza was torn apart. There was a further suggestion by another informed American official that Israel should consider the slim possibility that the leadership of Hamas could initiate a series of criminal trials for those in the Hamas leadership who planned the attack to be held in Gaza. That, too, went nowhere.

The enraged Israeli leadership instead chose collective punishment. This decision has led to tens of thousands of deaths—the numbers are impossible to measure amid the societal collapse—and growing worldwide condemnation of Israel. In America, that has meant a political backlash among college students and the young against the Democratic Party, whose candidates are in peril in the November elections.

Netanyahu, invited by the Republicans to speak on July 24 before a joint session of Congress—many Democrats stayed away—dared to take on American protesters in his speech, declaring that “they stand with Hamas” when they protest the killing and maiming of Gazans. “They stand with rapists and murderers,” Bibi said to Republican applause. “They stand with people who came . . . into a home” and murdered parents and children. “They should be ashamed of themselves. . . . For all we know, Iran is funding the anti-Israel protests that are going on right now.” He presented no evidence for the last claim.

Netanyahu raised the specter of nuclear arms—Israel has hundreds of them, and Iran has none—by coyly noting that America and Israel have “jointly developed some of the most sophisticated weapons on Earth . . . I choose my words carefully to help protect both our countries. We also help keep American boots off the ground while protecting our shared interests in the Middle East.”

I published a book on the Israeli nuclear arsenal in 1991, and many covert Israeli sources abetted my reporting. I am convinced that our “shared interests” do not include the assassination last week in Iran of Ismail Haniyeh. He was the Hamas point man who was involved in the talks with Israel and America over a proposed ceasefire—one that it is now clear Netanyahu never wanted, something Biden and his foreign policy staff never seemed to have figured out. However, many in the American intelligence community understood that Netanyahu had become entirely beholden to the far right in Israel—represented most alarmingly by Itamar Ben-Gvir, who has been Israel’s security minister since 2022.

Ben-Gvir has emerged as a leader of the Otzma Yehudit party, which holds six seats, giving the party control in the bitterly divided Israeli Knesset. He is an acknowledged racist who does not hesitate to say he wants to drive all Palestinians from their land. Ben-Gvir and his party keep Netanyahu in office and away from a prison sentence for a series of corruption indictments. It is a lethal combination.

The current spate of Netanyahu-ordered assassinations began last week when a missile destroyed the office of Fuad Shukr, killing the Hezbollah commander, in a heavily populated suburb of Beirut. Two women and three children were also killed, and more than a dozen were injured. I am one of the few Westerners to have interviewed Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah in Beirut, and I had five meetings with him for the New Yorker after the Bush administration invaded Iraq in the spring of 2003. Then and now, he has been viewed as the most critical leader in the Shiite world.

In a series of telephone interviews with those close to Nasrallah after the assassination of Shukr, I was told that an immediate retaliation would not happen. Nasrallah has concluded that Netanyahu needs to create a constant crisis in order to stay in power. Since the attack was in a suburb and not in Beirut proper—and not in Tehran—there was no need for an immediate response.

The Israeli assassination of Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran—seven others were killed by what has been variously reported to be a bomb or a missile attack—was a clear message that there will be no ceasefire in Gaza as long as Netanyahu is in power. It also could be what no one, except perhaps Netanyahu and his political colleagues in Israel, wants: a deadly international game changer.

Speaking during an elaborately staged funeral in south Beirut for Fuad Shukr, Nasrallah was cryptic about his plans (as translated from Arabic): “We are paying the price”—a reference to Shukr’s assassination—“of opening our support front for Gaza. . . . We entered this battle based on our firm belief in the nobility of this cause, its fight, and its importance. The enemy’s attacks on Lebanon and Yemen are evidence that we are no longer merely in the position of support fronts. This is an open battle with the enemy. . . .”

“Does the enemy think killing Ismail Haniyeh on Iranian soil will pass without a response?”

Nasrallah asked. “Iran considers this an attack not only on its sovereignty but on its honor.” The Shiite leader, who studied in Iran, then issued this warning on behalf of Shiite-dominated Iran: “To the Israeli enemy. ‘You may have rejoiced in the killing, but you will cry very soon, as you are not aware of the red lines you have crossed.’”

I was told Nasrallah would not see me, but one of his close associates, a former member of the Lebanese government, said to me in a later interview that, with the funeral for Shukr finished, “an attack could take place at any time.” Nasrallah’s missiles can reach “possible American and Israeli targets” throughout the Mideast. “All major military American ports and Navy bases in the Mediterranean are within range. He has the weapons, and people are trained to handle them.” He further claimed that Russia was currently resupplying Iran with thousands of advanced anti-aircraft missiles “along with the experts to handle them.”

“Nobody but a madman,” he said of Netanyahu, “would have done what he did in these last days,” referring to the assassinations near Beirut and in Tehran. “He killed the negotiator to ceasefire talks while he was an official visitor to the swearing-in of a new President in Tehran. He discredited all of the negotiators.”

The Pentagon got the message. A statement issued late last week said Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin, responding to a request from Biden, had ordered an additional fighter jet squadron and a new aircraft carrier to the Middle East to increase support for Israel and ensure the protection of American assets there. Other American warships were deployed in case of a spreading war to protect American military assets in Europe and the Middle East.

The White House also issued a statement late last week summarizing Biden and Kamala Harris's telephone call with Netanyahu. There was no talk in the statement of reassuring the leaders of Iran and Hezbollah that America was committed to immediate negotiations to avoid bloodshed. Instead, there was bellicosity.

“President Biden,” the statement said, “spoke today with Prime Minister Netanyahu of Israel. The President reaffirmed his commitment to Israel’s security against all threats from Iran, including its proxy terrorist groups Hamas, Hezbollah, and the Houthis. The President discussed efforts to support Israel’s defense against threats, including against ballistic missiles and drones, to include new defensive US military deployments. Together with this commitment to Israel’s defense, the President stressed the importance of ongoing efforts to de-escalate broader tensions in the region. Vice President Harris also joined the call.”

Sending aircraft carriers and more combat ships to the Middle East cannot be defined as an effort to de-escalate tension. Harris must separate herself as quickly as politically feasible from the jingoism of a president who has lost his way.

The New York Times reported Sunday that Biden insisted to a group of journalists waiting with him Thursday night for the return of American prisoners from Russia that there was still a path to a ceasefire in Gaza. He said that he’d had a conversation with Netanyahu and told him that there still was a “basis for a cease-fire” and that he “should move on it, and they should move on it now.” Asked if the Haniyeh killing made it harder to reach a deal, the president said, according to the Times, “It’s not helped. That’s all I’m going to say now.”

An Israeli who spent his career in the military advising and dealing with the most severe threats his government was facing expressed his despair in a recent email to me. “There is no longer a war cabinet, only Bibi” in Israel, he wrote. The prime minister, he added, until his legal defeats and the most recent elections, “was very wary of military adventures and major domestic confrontations. He has been a different man since two or three years ago. He is mad with rage and hate.

“We need a Churchill, but we will accept a Harry S Truman.”

Instead, we and they have a Biden.

What is the Side of the Story that is Not Yet Decisive? Edited by Abraham A. van Kempen.

PODCAST | WHAT IS GOING ON IN IRAN WHILE ISRAEL BRACES FOR RETALIATION?

Iran and other sources have blamed Israel for the strike and are vowing retaliation – and Israel is gearing up for an attack. For the Haaretz Podcast, correspondent Linda Dayan spoke about this threat to Dr. Raz Zimmt, a senior researcher and expert on Iran from the Institute of National Security Studies at Tel Aviv University.

The coffin of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh during his funeral ceremony at Enqelab-e-Eslami Square in Tehran on August 1, 2024.Credit: Vahid Salemi / AP

Podcast Host Linda Dayan

Haaretz Israel
5 August 2024

Please listen to the Podcast here (23 minutes, 30 seconds)

Over two days last week, two significant assassinations shook the Middle East. The first was of senior Hezbollah commander Fuad Shukr, for which the Israeli military took credit, in Beirut. The second was a much more daring operation – the killing of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran, right under the nose of Iran's Revolutionary Guard Corps.

Iran and other sources have blamed Israel for the strike and are vowing retaliation – and Israel is gearing up for an attack. For the Haaretz Podcast, correspondent Linda Dayan spoke about this threat to Dr. Raz Zimmt, a senior researcher and expert on Iran from the Institute of National Security Studies at Tel Aviv University.

He said that the Iranian parliament held a special closed-door session on Sunday attended by officials from the intelligence ministry, Quds Force, and Revolutionary Guards officers. "This, in my view, represents the level of surprise and humiliation caused to Iran by this assassination in Tehran, in a compound which was probably observed," and for which the Revolutionary Guards were responsible."

After April's Iranian attack on Israel, Zimmt explained, "Iran has come up with this so-called 'new equation,' according to which every Israeli attack on Iranian interests – personalities or facilities, either inside Iran or outside Iran – would be considered a major blow, which deserves a direct attack by Iran."

Compared to previous incidents, "Iran and Hezbollah are more willing today to take the risk of escalation," Zimmt said, "even if it means dragging themselves into a full-scale confrontation."

A poster of the late Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh, who was killed in an assassination last week, hangs on a mosque building in downtown Tehran on Monday. Credit: Vahid Salemi / AP

Still, he said, Iran's leadership is torn on the response. He compares the more pragmatic approach that doesn't necessarily oppose military retaliation against Israel but doesn't want to cause a full-scale regional war, with the hardliners, represented by the Revolutionary Guards, calling for a severe and direct attack.

"I sense that right now, mainly because [Iranian President Masoud] Pezeshkian is new, inexperienced, and has not yet come up with this new administration, the position of the power of the more hardliners in Iran seems to be higher, and therefore, I think we will see that in Iran's upcoming retaliation against Israel."

At the outset of the war in Gaza, when Israel was at the peak of its military capabilities and had considerable international support, a broader regional confrontation could have been advantageous for Israel, said Zimmt. But "Today, after ten months of war, we have to be honest and say that we have still not accomplished all our objectives, even in Gaza," he said. It would be "a major mistake to escalate things even further and to reach the point of regional war."

But we should be ready for what this means when the fighting in Gaza is done. "I do think that if and when the war in Gaza is halted, if we reach a cease-fire, then we should prepare ourselves better for the possibility of a future confrontation with either Hezbollah or Iran, mainly because Iran continues its efforts to nuclearize itself, and due to what Hezbollah has been doing for years."

'WAR NEVER SAVED CHILDREN. MOST DRUZE SAY THEY DON'T WANT THEIR TRAGEDY TO CAUSE MORE KILLING'

Falah Saab recalled that "one of the most painful sights was the blood-stained bicycles of the children" who were playing on the soccer field and who had no time to run for safety when the siren sounded.

Mourners during the funeral for Guevara Ibrahim, 11, one of 12 children and teens killed in a rocket strike on a soccer field in the Druze village of Majdal Shams, in the Golan Heights. Credit: Leo Correa / AP

Podcast Host Sheren Falah Saab
Haaretz Podcast
30 July 2024

Please listen to the Podcast here (45 minutes, 08 seconds)

It was a scene of "complete chaos" in the town of Majdal Shams in the Golan Heights following the devastating Hezbollah strike that killed 12 children playing soccer on Saturday, Haaretz correspondent Sheren Falah Saab, who was at the scene just an hour after the attack, recounted emotionally on Haaretz Podcast.

"There were ambulances everywhere and hundreds of people surrounding the wounded children and the bodies of the children," said Falah Saab, who is a member of the Druze community and has spent the days since the tragedy in the hospital at the bedside of her relatives wounded in a most deadly attack on civilians in Israeli territory since October 7.

Falah Saab recalled that "one of the most painful sights was the blood-stained bicycles of the children" who were playing on the soccer field and who had no time to run for safety when the siren sounded.

• On the killing field in Majdal Shams: A tremendous but quiet grief
• Reactions to Majdal Shams tragedy show Arab confusion about the Druze in Israel
• Kamala Harris will be an honest broker between Israel and the Palestinians

The disaster struck a community already hit by the Gaza war, she noted. Ten Druze soldiers have been killed in fighting since the start of the war in Gaza. There has also been damage to agriculture and property. But the most significant economic blow is the near-cessation of tourism by both Israelis and foreign visitors in northern Israel, on which much of the Druze population relies to make a living.

Amid calls for massive retaliation by Israeli leaders, including some Druze, Falah Saab maintained that a majority of Druze "say they don't want war, and they don't want this tragedy to cause more tragedy and more killing of children."

"The only thing Israel should do," said Falah Saab, "is sign a cease-fire and hostage deal. War never saved children, Druze, or others. It only kills children."

JEFFREY A. TUCKER | THE MARKET MELTDOWN

But there was more going on here. Some voices have said that the seeming economic boom was inaccurate for years. It resulted from monetary pumping, government spending, and tremendous data fakery. For anyone paying close attention, the bubble was obvious all along.

A trader works on the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) floor ahead of the closing bell in New York City on 5 August 2024. (Charly Triballeau/AFP via Getty Images)

By Jeffrey A. Tucker
Epoch Times
5 August 2024

The 2 August 2024 jobs report offered nothing particularly new or earthshaking. Given the underlying decay that had been unbearably obvious for at least two years, the unemployment rate increased as it was destined to. However, the increase did trigger the so-called Sahm rule and forecast a recession. 

• The Sahm Recession Is Here
  

But there was more going on here. Some voices have said that the seeming economic boom was inaccurate for years. It resulted from monetary pumping, government spending, and tremendous data fakery. For anyone paying close attention, the bubble was obvious all along.

People can’t stand rising prices for groceries, cars, gas, and rent. But they like rising prices for financials and stock portfolios. The issue is that in our times, without serious fundamentals, both stem from the same underlying causal agent: the manipulation of money and credit.

What’s crucial is that the 2 August unemployment number snapped market psychology and interrupted the dream state that has been present for the last four years. The dream was induced by history’s most significant, sustained, and fully globalized expansion of paper money.

It was all designed to boost industrial production following the panic lockdowns of March 2020. It was distributed as if by helicopter, creating hot money on the street, not just in the United States but worldwide. 

• US Manufacturing Losses: Why the Denial?
  

It all seemed to work until it did not. Like the global lockdowns, the inflationary depression will also be an international crisis. The U.S. economy is observed because the dollar is the world’s reserve currency.

There is a reason that the headline unemployment number was the straw that broke the camel’s back. Since the 1930s, this number has been a critical indicator of economic health. Although the gross domestic product declined in two quarters in 2022, a recession was not declared because unemployment was not high.

So when this flipped, the recession appeared to be on its way or already here. That also provoked people to look more carefully at the U-6 numbers, including discouraged workers and part-timers suffering. Here, we saw theatrical movement, taking us to 7.8 percent. That got Wall Street’s attention.

(Data: Federal Reserve Economic Data, St. Louis Fed; Chart: Jeffrey A. Tucker)

It’s usually best not to panic about such market corrections, even large ones. This one's features do not lend themselves to a fully recumbent posture. The sell-off has been broad, affecting everything.

As I write, the volatility index is 114 percent, besting past panics. The impact is global, as is the case with everything these days. Crypto has not been spared. The dollar on the international exchange also took a hit. The most immediate question is whether and to what extent the trading will be permitted without market closures. Some platforms have already shut for business, which puts securities holders in an awkward place. If so, they can sell but only see their trades go through after 24 hours.

These little tricks only postpone the inevitable and sometimes even induce more panic. The Federal Reserve will try to ride this one out a bit. But if matters dramatically worsen, they will bow to pressure to intervene, buying up more securities to dump into its already overstuffed portfolio, essentially taking them off the market. They call in plunge protection, but sweeping all the roaches into a closet resembles sweeping. It doesn’t make the problem disappear; it only delays the total takeover.

There is also the possibility of an emergency meeting to cut rates. Will that be enough to re-induce a dream-like state? At this point, it needs to be clarified. We may be past the point when yet another injection of quantitative easing will be enough to prevent the inevitable crash. It’s beyond evident that the Fed only needs to make things look the least bad until after November. There is another grave danger about which you should be aware. For two years, the Fed has been working to sponge up the excess liquidity it created from 2020 to 2021 in the most extensive single expansion of the money stock in American history.

That made inflation official; it has been about 20 percent over four years but is more likely 30 to 50 percent or higher, depending on what you buy. Intervening now to save financials could quickly reignite the inflation beast and entrench a second wave. That is a dangerous possibility, which now seems on the verge of being inevitable.

Please remember! None of this has happened in a vacuum. It traces to a series of disastrous policy decisions:

1. Spending explosions and money creation in 2020
2. A continuation of stimulus in 2021
3. Green energy conversions in 2022–2023
4. Massive increases in interest rates cost businesses and the government trillions of dollars
5. And the prolonged breakdown of broken supply chains due to the lockdown fallout, plus general discouragement, demoralization, ill health, and rising illiteracy.

All these combine to create a very bearish environment. The only reason it has not happened yet was the continued stupor induced by easy money policies and government expansion. The dam had to break at some point. The only question is whether the interventions can stop the flow or if the decay is too extensive to fix.

A wise investor never chases a panic.

A wise investor never goes along with the crowd, to begin with. At some point in the future—and maybe that future is now—fundamentals will reassert themselves with ferocity, and a level of austerity this generation has never faced will be upon us. Are we strong enough to make it through? I’m not sure. But in the end, and it will end, we will all be stronger as a result.

A new stoicism awaits us all.

ANALYSIS | HERE’S WHY THERE WON’T BE A WORLD WAR OVER THE MIDDLE EAST

Unfortunately, the region will always be a source of bad news, but the great powers aren’t going to risk a broader conflict over it.

The city of Tehran with the Iranian Flag © Getty Images / Getty Images

By Timofey Bordachev

Edited by Abraham A. van Kempen
HomeWorld News
5 August 2024

The elaborate assassination of a Hamas leader in Tehran will inevitably lead to another round of acute international tension in the Middle East. We do not yet know the exact nature of the retaliatory strike that the Iranian leadership has promised Israel. But it is likely to follow shortly. Many observers worry about the broader implications for the region and the world.

For almost a year now, we have witnessed a severe deterioration of relations between Israel and its neighbors. Iran, in whose capital the terrorist attack took place, has traditionally been at the forefront of the struggle against the Israelis and their Western allies. At the same time, we must consider two peculiarities of what is happening. First, no objective reasons exist for a genuinely large-scale regional interstate war. Secondly, a conflict would have a limited effect on world affairs.

There is no doubt that dreams of a relatively peaceful equilibrium in the Middle East will have to be abandoned for a very long time, if not forever. The reduction in America’s ability to intervene in Middle Eastern politics gave rise to the idea that countries in the region could find ways of living together independently without Washington holding their hand. But now those expectations seem very premature.

Israel’s domestic problems have created the conditions for its government to choose the traditional path of conflict rather than cooperation with its neighbors. Other states have reacted according to their capabilities.

However, it is too early to think we could see a significant regional war. In any case, there are no apparent prerequisites for one. This compares with all the previous large-scale conflicts around Israel in the second half of the twentieth century. It seems more likely now that its neighbors and adversaries will show restraint.

First, none of them are currently pursuing a revolutionary foreign policy. Until the mid-1970s, most Arab countries in the region were gripped by radical nationalism, which caused most wars. Israel, for its part, was also on the rise, and significant confrontations with its neighbors continued its internal dynamics.

The situation today is somewhat different. Israel’s neighbors are either established states or facing severe internal difficulties. Even Iran, which looks the most determined, is no longer the revolutionary entity it was for the first 10-15 years after the fall of the Shah’s regime and the establishment of the Islamic Republic in 1979. In other words, Israel’s neighbors have no reason to take the risks that a major war would entail. And it still takes two to tango. In particular, none of Israel’s neighbors capable of waging a major war have their territorial disputes with it. And there don’t seem to be domestic political reasons for locking horns.

Thus, a relatively severe armed conflict is only possible in the event of a massive Israeli attack on one of its neighbors. Such a prospect is not yet in sight.

But even if we accept the theoretical possibility of a major war, the potential for its impact on world politics and economies is far from obvious. These effects would likely be limited to domestic issues. In other words, the war would affect the balance between the major powers, presenting them with additional advantages or problems. But it would not change their position to such an extent as to force them into existential problems.

The unique position of nuclear superpowers is that only peers can pose a real danger to them. Only direct action aimed at each other’s security could lead the US or Russia to conclude that a threat is worth such a monstrous risk as an appeal to their unique military capabilities.

Possession of nuclear weapons places an enormous responsibility on the leaders of those two great powers—and that responsibility is only for their citizens and their state. It, therefore, seems extremely unlikely that a regional conflict would lead them to engage in confrontation—even if they are indirectly involved.

We remember from history that during the Cold War, the USSR and the US openly supported their main adversaries in the Middle East. Moscow, as we know, even sent a significant number of advisers, along with weapons, to Arab countries. Washington, for its part, supported Israel with all its might. But this did not create a situation in USSR-US relations similar to the Cuban Missile Crisis of 1962 when we were on the brink of world war. Simply because, at that moment, the threat was mutual and aimed at the territory of the USSR and the US. The other regional conflicts, even Korea in 1950-1953, where Soviet pilots fought, did not create crises of this magnitude.

Of course, we could be wrong, especially if the political elites of the West need to display better strategic thinking. However, it is axiomatic that relations between nuclear superpowers occur on a different plane than the rest of international politics. All regional conflicts, even the most violent ones, are in the realm of conventional politics and thus do not pose a direct and immediate threat to the survival of these powers.

Therefore, they retain the ability to remain detached from any changes in the balance of power caused by conflicts between their allies.

And purely theoretically, the likelihood that even a major – God forbid – war in the Middle East would threaten the survival of all humanity is minimal.

Not only that, but a likely clash between the US and China over Taiwan would also have a good chance of remaining at the level of an ordinary major conflict. This may be one of the reasons why the Chinese leadership has reacted with restraint and composure to all the hostile antics of the Americans.

Unfortunately, the situation in the Middle East will always be a source of disturbing and unfortunate news. We will have to get used to the fact that as long as Israel exists, its interactions with its neighbors will remain complex and, in some cases, bloody. But even if the Jewish state should eventually disappear, it’s not certain that other sources of regional tension will follow suit. Don’t forget that Iran also has territorial disputes with its Gulf neighbors.

The weight of civilian casualties and flagrant violations of international law should elicit condemnation and diplomatic action from Russia and all countries committed to the peaceful resolution of conflicts. However, the eventual reduction of regional tensions will remain a matter for the states concerned.

IRANIAN PRESIDENT VOWS RESPONSE TO ISRAEL’S ‘CRIMES’

President Masoud Pezeshkian noted, however, that Tehran does not wish to expand the scale of war in the region.

Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian © Getty Images / Iranian Presidency Handout; Anadolu

Edited by Abraham A. van Kempen

HomeWorld News
6 August 2024

Tehran does not seek to escalate the conflict in the Middle East but intends to strike back at Israel for its “crimes and impudence,” Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian has said.

His comments come after Ismail Haniyeh, one of the key figures of the Palestinian militant group Hamas, was murdered while visiting the Iranian capital last week. Iran and the group have blamed Israel for the assassination and vowed revenge. The Jewish State has neither confirmed nor denied its involvement in the plot.

During a meeting with Russia’s Security Council Secretary Sergey Shoigu in Tehran on Monday, Pezeshkian stressed that Iran “does not seek to expand the scale of the war and crisis in the region,” as cited by Tasnim News Agency. However, he insisted that the Israeli “regime will answer for its crimes and its impudence.”

The Iranian president also thanked Russia for the continued support it has shown the Palestinian people and stressed the need to develop Iranian-Russian relations further. Shoigu agreed and described Tehran as one of Moscow’s key strategic allies.

Meanwhile, Israel and the US have reportedly been bracing for an imminent Iranian attack in response to Tehran’s threats, according to an Axios report, which has claimed that the Biden administration believes an attack will occur within a matter of days. Citing two unnamed US officials, the outlet stated that the Israeli military has been put on high alert while US forces have increased their presence in the region.

Israel could be preparing to launch a “preemptive strike” on Iran if it receives conclusive intelligence that Tehran is sure to attack, local media reported on Monday. According to the Times of Israel, the option was discussed at a high-level security meeting attended by the country’s defense and intelligence chiefs.

In the meantime, Washington has been urging its allies to discourage Tehran from escalating tensions in the region. If the Jewish State is attacked, the US has vowed to defend its partner. On Saturday, the US Defense Department announced that Washington had deployed more destroyers, cruisers, and an additional fighter jet squadron to the region.

ANALYSIS | U.S. HOPES IT DETERRED MAJOR IRANIAN STRIKE ON ISRAEL WHILE HEZBOLLAH REMAINS THE WILD CARD

U.S. and Israeli officials believe Hezbollah’s retaliation for the killing of a top official will focus on military sites. Still, they cannot confidently say how careful it will be to avoid civilian harm.

Supporters of Hamas and Hezbollah shout slogans during a protest condemning the killing of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh and Hezbollah top commander Fuad Shukr, in Sidon, Lebanon, August 2, 2024. Credit: Alkis Konstantinidis/ REUTERS

By Amos Harel
Haaretz Israel
8 August 2024

The Washington Post's diplomatic and national security analyst David Ignatius woke up optimistic on Wednesday. Based mainly on American and Israeli sources, he says there may still be a way to avoid escalating into a full-fledged Middle East conflagration.

The Biden administration, he reports, has succeeded to some extent in deterring Iran from a widespread attack on Israel, while Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is showing signs of flexibility on the question of the cease-fire and hostage deal with Hamas. The wild card remains Hezbollah: It is not clear whether the organization shares the Iranian approach or whether it intends to take the risk of igniting a regional war.

Residential and office buildings stand in Beirut's southern suburbs on Wednesday. Credit: Joseph Eid/AFP

According to Ignatius, U.S. President Joe Biden is leading the effort to restore calm, even though he is no longer running for a second term. Biden is using an unofficial back channel with the Iranian regime and, at the same time, is pressuring Netanyahu. To prevent a "catastrophic war" in the Middle East, the president has even dispatched aircraft carriers, destroyers, and fighter jets to the region, declaring that the U.S. will help defend Israel as it did in April. 

• The ring of fire around Israel: A look at the arsenals of Iran, Hezbollah, and the Houthis
  
• Lebanon waits in fear for Iran and Hezbollah's response
  
• Haifa residents fear Hezbollah strike will target city's hazardous materials port area
  

 Iran is reconsidering its steps, even as the circumstances surrounding the killing of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran last week are gradually emerging. The killing, according to the Post's analyst, used an explosive device planted in Haniyeh's room at a guest house operated by the Iranian Revolutionary Guards – not employing a missile fired from a long distance. Somehow, according to the unwritten rules of the game in the Middle East, this is probably seen as less of a provocation in the eyes of the regime.

American warnings have been relayed through the Swiss Embassy in Tehran and the Iranian mission to the United Nations in New York. The Americans have told Tehran that regional escalation will complicate matters for Iran's newly elected president, Masoud Pezeshkian. Regarding Netanyahu, Ignatius reports that the prime minister has pulled back from some of his new conditions for a hostage deal that threatened to scuttle negotiations. Israeli sources did not verify the report regarding Netanyahu.

A portrait of slain Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh is displayed during a demonstration denouncing his killing and that of Hezbollah's senior commander in the Lebanese coastal city of Sidon on August 2, 2024. Credit: AFP

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EDITORIAL | A Big Bang $Billion Bounty on Netanyahu’s Head

Wanted ALIVE!

               A $billion for Netanyahu’s head.

               Imagine living with a $billion bounty on your head.

               Bounty hunting is legal if the bounty hunter does not kill the criminal.

               Murder is unlawful.

               A $billion goes a long way.

Iran has the $billion. There is no need to spark a world war. Keep the troops at home and send in the money.

BUILDING THE BRIDGE! | A WAY TO GET TO KNOW THE OTHER AND ONE ANOTHER

Making a Difference – The Means, Methods, and Mechanism for Many to Move Mountains

Photo Credit: Abraham A. van Kempen, our home away from home on the Dead Sea

By Abraham A. van Kempen
Senior Editor
Updated 19 January 2024

Those who commit to 'healing our broken humanity' build intercultural bridges to learn to know and understand one another and others. Readers who thumb through the Building the Bridge (BTB) pages are not mindless sheep following other mindless sheep. They THINK. They want to be at the forefront of making a difference. They're in search of the bigger picture to expand their horizons. They don't need BTB or anyone else to confirm their biases.

Making a Difference – The Means, Methods, and Mechanism for Many to Move Mountains

Accurate knowledge promotes understanding, dispels prejudice, and awakens the desire to learn more. Words have an extraordinary power to bring people together, divide them, forge bonds of friendship, or provoke hostility. Modern technology offers unprecedented possibilities for good, fostering harmony and reconciliation. Yet its misuse can do untold harm, leading to misunderstanding, prejudice, and conflict.

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