Analysis Peace and War: Trump's Gaza Plan Will Either Move Ahead Soon – or Die

U.S. President Donald Trump speaking to journalists aboard Air Force One on Sunday. Credit: Elizabeth Frantz/Reuters

The U.S. is moving ahead with plans to create an International Stabilization Force that will take over parts of the Gaza Strip. The Trump administration's focus on the ISF is a sign that Washington is serious about implementing the next phase of the cease-fire agreement in Gaza.

It's been almost a month since the deal to end the war between Israel and Hamas was signed, but after the release of the Israeli hostages and the IDF withdrawal to the so-called yellow line, the situation froze in place, and the fate of U.S. President Donald Trump's broader 20-point plan became uncertain.

In the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, there is rarely a status quo that can hold over time. For this reason alone, the introduction of the ISF is crucial. Until this force is ready for deployment, Israel will not withdraw further from the approximately 50 percent of Gaza still under its control.

Such a reality will make it much more complicated politically for Arab and Muslim countries to take part in the reconstruction of Gaza, and to improve their own relations with Israel – two of President Trump's top priorities in the Middle East. Absent this kind of positive momentum, the war could eventually be renewed and tear apart Trump's regional peace ambitions.

Hamas militants standing guard in Gaza City, Tuesday. Credit: Omar al-Qattaa/AFP

The details of the ISF's mandate remain unclear, though a draft UN Security Council resolution on the matter is already circulating among Western and Arab capitals. Details of the resolution, first reported over the weekend by journalist Barak Ravid, include a timetable for taking the responsibility on the ground from the Israeli military – but not for the IDF withdrawing from Gaza.

For now, the resolution states the ISF will be present in the coastal enclave for at least the next two years, with an option to extend its mandate. At an unspecified future endpoint, the ISF is supposed to hand over responsibility to the Palestinian Authority – but only after the PA completes undefined "reforms" under American supervision.

The resolution states that the ISF will be responsible for several important missions: carrying out the demilitarization of Gaza, securing the Gaza-Egypt border, protecting Palestinian civilians and ensuring that aid enters the Gaza Strip and is distributed to the benefit of the population there.

The resolution also mentions the creation of a Palestinian technocratic government that will win the approval of the U.S.-led Board of Peace. This entity, which hasn't yet been created, is supposed to be led by President Trump himself, with the assistance of former British Prime Minister Tony Blair, and will oversee the entire process of rebuilding Gaza.

U.S. President Donald Trump gesturing toward Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu at Ben-Gurion International Airport as Trump departed last month. Credit: Evelyn Hockstein/Reuters

Many details still have to be negotiated between the multiple countries that have stakes in this process. One key question is which countries will contribute soldiers to the ISF.

Will Egypt, which neighbors Gaza from the south, send its troops there? Will Israel accept the presence of Turkish soldiers in Gaza? And what will it take to persuade countries like Indonesia and Pakistan – which are preferable from the Israeli perspective – to take part in this adventure, despite the fact that their soldiers don't speak Arabic? Is there any chance Saudi Arabia would participate?

The role of the Palestinian Authority is kept ambiguous in the current text of the draft resolution, most likely due to Israeli objections. But for other countries – from the United Kingdom and France to the Arab and Muslim partners that Trump is hoping to enlist – a faster transition from the ISF to the PA could provide countries with extra motivation to join and fund the entire project. Trump will have to balance their wishes with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's political considerations, which reflect his reliance on Israel's far-right parties to stay in power.

The most important thing is that Washington isn't sleeping on this issue and is moving the cease-fire ahead. That's the surest way to avoid a return to war. But also if Trump wants his 20-point plan to succeed, his administration will have to make some tough decisions about its contents – and realize that it can't keep everyone happy at the same time.