Our Friday News Analysis | In Search of a Nation's Soul (Part 15)

EU-U.S. frictions are emerging over Russia’s war in Ukraine, economic nationalism, and China. Working together on security
while economically fending off for themselves is not viable.

The Hague, 16 December 2022 | If you know of any story that is decisive, tell the world. We're still searching.

What is the Side of the Story that is Not Yet Decisive?

Edited by Abraham A. van Kempen, featuring:

• ‘Transatlantic Woes: Neither Side Can Have It All,’ by Rosa Balfour, Carnegie Europe, 1 December 2022
• ‘Are France and Germany Wavering on Russia?’ by Judy Dempsey, Carnegie Europe, 8 December 2022.
• A Rebuttal, One American’s Opinion, see below.

Transatlantic Woes: Neither Side Can Have It All

By Rosa Balfour

Rosa Balfour is the director of Carnegie Europe. Her expertise includes European politics, institutions, and foreign and security policy.

Relations between the United States and the EU are going through a rough patch where old frictions are coming to the fore.

There are three prominent bones of contention: 1) where Russia’s war against Ukraine is going, 2) perceptions of economic nationalism, and 3) how to deal with China. These are all old issues in new clothes that go to the heart of the transatlantic relationship.

Diplomacy can craft solutions, and this week’s state visit of French President Emmanuel Macron to the United States could provide some ahead of next week’s Trade and Technology Council. Still, neither side can have it all on the three interconnected fronts. The logic driving the United States and the EU are at odds regarding the link between security and the economy.

Americans started blinking first on the Russian invasion of Ukraine. With different arguments—to prevent a nuclear escalation, to return to the administration’s primary concern of China’s rise, or because it is not seen as the United States’ war—the debates in Washington’s foreign policy circles started to focus on how to end the war.

Europeans are not ready for this. Ukraine’s military successes have boosted morale for the long, cold winter there. Western Europeans are enduring the brunt of the consequences without the expected public upheavals—for now.

The wartime strategy was crafted in Washington, but the complete response has been quite a feat of transatlantic coordination. Europeans stand by the principle of “nothing about Ukraine without Ukraine,” and the impression Washington is abandoning it is a cause for worry. European unity is proving to be more than paper-thin but not watertight. If the United States falters, the EU may not step in.

Beneath European unity is differing perceptions that prevent the emergence of a clear European leadership. The Franco-German relationship has been struggling, and Polish-German relations are deteriorating.

While Poland and the Baltic states are active in shaping the EU’s response to the war, there is no northeastern gravitational shift that some have announced. Leadership in Europe follows more complicated patterns. The absence of an agreement between the UK and the EU also prevents a leadership role vis-à-vis Ukraine.

Finally, the fears of Central and Eastern European states should be taken seriously. Putin’s revisionism in Central and Eastern Europe and the tireless attacks on infrastructure could have destabilizing consequences other than a direct military confrontation between Russia and NATO. Aside from the trite argument about who spends the most (the United States does in absolute terms), for Europe, the economic, energy, and humanitarian costs are of far greater consequence than for the United States.

The second basket of transatlantic tensions relates to the Inflation Reduction Act. While it could put the United States onto the map in the fight against climate change, at long last, the industrial strategy focuses on subsidizing American enterprises. The European economy could become collateral damage as US subsidies attract investments away from Europe.

News reports reveal anger seeping through to journalists in Brussels, who accuse Washington of “profiting” from the war in Ukraine—a severe accusation that plays into rooted public skepticism about the United States. The United States, conversely, sees its “profitable” LNG deliveries as helpful to wean Europe off Russian fossil fuels.

US President Joe Biden’s administration’s goal of pursuing a “foreign policy for the middle classes” has been met with caution in Brussels, wondering whether it is window-dressing for the economic nationalism of the Donald Trumpian sort. For Thierry Breton, EU commissioner for the internal market, US “protectionism” represents an “existential challenge” to the EU’s economy when the energy crisis accelerates de-industrialization.

The US retort that Europe should introduce similar national subsidies—“Buy European”—goes against EU competition norms, creates fears of trade wars, and contravenes World Trade Organization (WTO) rules.

The United States and EU have often managed to work through trade. Still, there are contradictory traps in the notion of allies working together on security while fending off for themselves on the economy.

The third tension is China. In response to US preferences, Europeans have recently hardened their relations with Beijing, especially on foreign policy matters and investment screening. But European economies are still reliant on trade with China.

Germany’s Zeitenwende implies a profound turnaround in thinking about Russia. It is striking that the lessons learned about these dependencies are not extended to relations with China. Last month, Germany agreed to Chinese infrastructural investments in the country, and Chancellor Olaf Scholz, despite much public criticism, visited Beijing with a delegation of business executives without any European colleagues.

This week, European Council President Charles Michel is in China, despite the crackdown on protests there. Reducing Europe’s ties with China to mercantilism is only part of the story. For European states, the emerging bifurcation of global politics is seen unfavorably.

Paradoxically, the EU has not found its place in a multipolar world. There are cases where the EU and the United States are fully aligned, such as norms in cyberspace, and others where the EU does not want to be squeezed and constrained by the U.S.-Chinese rivalry, such as in fighting climate change.

The United States' argument that Europeans cannot have it all—the luxury of US security guarantees, a healthy transatlantic environment, and the liberty to trade with US rivals—goes both ways.

Europeans, too, can argue that Washington cannot have it all: a European ally that takes care of its security is economically dependent on the United States and aligned in its remarkable power rivalry.

This blog is part of the Transatlantic Relations in Review series. Carnegie Europe thanks the US Mission to the EU for its support.

Carnegie does not take institutional positions on public policy issues; the views represented herein are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the opinions of Carnegie, its staff, or its trustees.

Read more: ‘Are France and Germany Wavering on Russia?’ by Judy Dempsey, Carnegie Europe, 8 December 2022.

REBUTTAL: One American's Opinion

"We are created to engage in human discourse to expand our blinders."
Abraham A. van Kempen

16 December 2022

Illustration by Neil Jamieson for TIME Source Images: Getty Images (12); Ivanchuk: Lena Mucha—The New York Times/Redux; Kondratova: Kristina Pashkina—UNICEF; Kutkov: Courtesy Oleg Kutkov; Nott: Annabel Moeller—David Nott Foundation; Payevska: Evgeniy Maloletka—AP

The Building the Bridge Foundation, The Hague, is indebted to the person who has mailed in his critique of our story questioning Time Magazine's need to deify the President of Ukraine and to demonize the President of the Russian Federation.

Neither side should either deify or demonize one or the other. The majority of humankind – more than 7.2 billion people – don't want to be in the middle of a regional conflict that could have been resolved diplomatically had the EU-US/NATO Axis simply championed peaceful co-existence instead of provoking war.

We have withheld the name and identity of the contributor who wrote the rebuttal honoring the person's request for privacy.

REBUTTAL |"I believe Abraham’s News Analysis of 9 December 2022 is a sincere statement of the general EU response to the war," says the person who critiqued the article.

"Remembering the Past is Committing to the Future…"

REBUTTAL | This is warm and fuzzy; it is also hollow and devoid of meaning. I would suggest the infinitely more powerful: "Actionable learnings taken from the past are commitments to the future."

To remember Hiroshima is to abhor nuclear war.

REBUTTAL | We'll stipulate nuclear war; the instantaneous death of 80 thousand Japanese (including 20 thousand military troops) is horrible. So is killing with bayonets (Japan's preferred way of butchering Chinese women, children, and other civilians) and bullets. At the time, US President Truman had to decide if the balance between Allied and Japanese lives was worth an atom bomb:

               - The one-million-man Japanese Kwantung Army's 1945 run rate of butchery on the Asia mainland was about 250,000 per month.

               - The official US Army estimate of Allied (overwhelmingly US military) deaths (not just casualties) to conquer the Japanese home island was 1,000,000 deaths.

From an American perspective, avoiding an additional 1 million Allied deaths and stopping the killing of 250,000 Asian civilians per month was a brutal but highly beneficial trade for 80,000 Japanese (20,000 of whom were military). No world leader at the time offered a better plan. Most Europeans have little knowledge of the Pacific war, mainly because the US fought Japan essentially alone (Britain was modestly involved). Japan was every bit as ruthless as Nazi Germany.

FOR THE RECORD: On August 6, 1945, the day the Hiroshima bomb was dropped, my father was a 21-year-old 4th Division US Marine, training in Hawaii for the invasion of the Japanese homeland

To remember Hiroshima is to commit to peace.

REBUTTAL | To remember only Hiroshima (and Nagasaki) is to forget the millions of people (mainly civilians) Japan was directly responsible for murdering and killing in 1934-1945. The non-atomic solution would have killed over 1M more Allies to invade and conquer the Japanese home island.

To remember Hiroshima is to turn disaster into a new beginning.

REBUTTAL | The Japanese Hiroshima and Nagasaki deaths and the millions of deaths directly caused by the Japanese are a disaster. Japan was fortunate the world (especially the US) fed, clothed, and helped rebuild the country.

…

Let us embark on the arduous path of peace, the only approach that suits human dignity, the only way that leads to the proper fullness of human destiny, the only path to a future in which equity, justice, and solidarity are realities, not just distant dreams."

REBUTTAL | Peace has never been, is not now, and never will be an end-state that, once achieved, is self-sufficient and eternal. The price of peace is eternal vigilance.

Read more: Saint Pope John Paul II, 'A Balance of Power NOT a Balance of Terror,' the Peace Memorial in Hiroshima, Japan, 25 February 1981.

Mr. Zelensky, Become the Leader You Are Meant to Be!

Since President Volodymyr Zelensky's inauguration on 20 May 2019, has he done everything he could to avoid war with the Russian Federation? Indeed, he inherited a civil war between the Nationalists in the West and the Separatists in the East. It's a conflict that's been brewing since the 1990s.

What is the Side of the Story that is Not Yet Decisive?

By Abraham A. van Kempen, featuring:

• Open letter to President Volodymyr Zelensky'
• Vladimir Putin's Victory Day Speech,' 9 May 2022'
• John Mearsheimer on Putin's Ambitions After Nine Months of War – The realist American political scientist explains why Russia's move to annex four Ukrainian provinces isn't imperialism.'
• The New York Times Guest Essay, 'World War II Begins with Forgetting,' by Stephen Wertheim.
• An Anonymous Letter in My Inbox

The Hague, 9 December 2022 | If you know of any decisive story, tell the world. We're still searching.

An international community of 40 countries sent hundreds of € billion in financial assistance to Ukraine between 2014 and 2023, exceeding Ukraine's annual Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of roughly $100.1 billion.

REBUTTAL | What do you expect? NATO is helping very poor Ukraine resist an unprovoked military invasion from a nuclear-armed neighbor with four times the population and ten times the GDP

What has Ukraine, flushed with cash beyond its wildest dreams, gained under President Volodymyr Zelensky?

               1. Ukraine has 'gained' a brain drain of millions of Ukrainians who, understandably, have sought refuge in the EU and Russia.

REBUTTAL | "Brains" may have left the geography called Ukraine; a significant portion will likely return once Russian war crimes and other aggression have stopped

               2. Recognizably, Ukraine has 'gained' a new neighbor in East Ukraine, a new territory voted by 86 percent of its inhabitants – Ukrainian nationals of Russian descent – to become part of the Russian Federation.

REBUTTAL | Undoubtedly, "East Ukraine" has significant numbers of separatists; considering the vote took place under a regime of Russian military occupation, and war crimes, the 86% vote is simply absurd. "Vote yes or I'll rape your wife and kill your children" may win votes in occupied territory, but not hearts and minds.

               3. In want of warmth inside their homes, Ukraine has, evidently, 'gained' increased power blackouts with freezing temperatures outside.

REBUTTAL | Given the world literally and almost unanimously assumed Russia would defeat Ukraine in less than a month, Ukraine's resistance has demonstrated patriotism, military sustainability, creativity, and effectiveness. No population wants to endure this level of suffering, but Ukrainians are demonstrating they consider their homeland worth fighting for.

Napoleon fatally underestimated Russian resistance in 1812; Hitler fatally underestimated Russian resistance in 1941; Putin has now duplicated these mistakes with his invasion of Ukraine. Among other significant mistakes, all three failed to provide proper winter clothing to their forces.

               4. Reportedly, for every 10 Ukrainians killed, Ukraine has 'gained' one dead Russian.

REBUTTAL | With 90,000 dead Russians, implying 900,000 dead Ukrainians, this is sheer fantasy. The proposition that Ukrainians fighting with NATO (read: US) military weapons, tactics, doctrine, and training are being killed 10-to-1 fighting Russian troops, who are poorly trained, poorly equipped, poorly led, poorly fed, and using WWII Soviet military tactics is palpable and utterly unsupported nonsense

               5. Ukraine has 'gained' growing resistance from its people against their government. They demonstrably reject their government's demand to serve NATO as cannon fodder and human shields, especially under harsh winter conditions.

REBUTTAL | I read 3-4 hours of news and current events daily; I have read no credible, documented reports of mass "…growing resistance from [Ukraine's] people against their government…". It is undoubtedly true that mothers do not want to see their sons killed for any reason.

Despite the recent infusion of €93.8 billion sunk into Ukraine from 24 January to 3 October 2022, derived from 40 countries in financial, humanitarian, and military aid, Ukraine (and the EU- US/NATO has not gained an inch in accomplishing its offensive strategy – disguised as a defense -- against the Russian Federation. The United States doled €52.3 billion to this impoverished nation to kill and get killed rather than to live, let live, followed by the EU with €29.2 billion and €12.3 billion from other countries, mainly the United Kingdom.

REBUTTAL | The EU/US/NATO are not fighting Russians; Ukrainians are. The premise of the statement is demonstrably untrue. Despite Russian war crimes (shelling, raping, and cold-blooded murder of civilians), including the kidnapping of tens of thousands (mainly women, children, and the elderly) and relocation to Russian internment:

• the vast majority of Ukraine's territory is and always has been under Ukraine's military control
• Kyiv has never fallen
• Ukraine leadership (Zelensky et al.) have not been assassinated or replaced
• Ukraine has and continues to liberate tens of thousands of square miles of the territory initially occupied by the Russian invasion
• Ukraine attacks on Russian territory have been limited to strictly military (not civilian) targets
• Ukraine's attacks on Russian territory are explicitly demonstrating Russian military incompetence and inability to defend their airspace
• Nuclear weapons notwithstanding, Russia is shown to be a savage and vicious bully and paper tiger.
• The laughably tiny and obsolete Ukraine Navy has taken the Russian Black Sea Navy out of the war (no grand amphibious invasion of Odesa to impress the world)
• The laughably tiny and obsolete Ukraine Air Force is at least holding its own against Russia's Air Force

What could the newly elected and wet-behind-the-ears President of Ukraine have done?

               1. Mr. Zelensky could have engaged the European Union (EU) and the United States (US) to guarantee the safety of all Ukrainians, especially those of Russian descent who feared for their lives, as ASOV executed many as saboteurs, separatists, or simply undesirables.

REBUTTAL | No external party (US or NATO) will guarantee Ukraine's safety. Ukraine and her sons will have to die fighting for this. The US and NATO are providing weapons and training to assist with this. "Engaging the EU" is meaningless; it has highly limited resources (which the US backfills) and no political will to undertake its defense, let alone Ukraine's.

               2. Mr. Zelensky could have engaged the EU-US (NATO) Axis to guarantee Russian access to Ukraine's seaports along the Black Sea, including Odesa, to facilitate shipping lanes for the free flow of Russian oil, gas, grain, and other exportable products.

REBUTTAL | No external party (US or NATO) will "guarantee" Ukraine's seaports; Ukraine and her sons will have to die fighting for those things. Ukraine appears to be doing a reasonable job of this.

               3. Mr. Zelensky could have engaged the EU-US/NATO Axis to guarantee the free flow of Russian oil and gas through advanced pipelines from Russia through Ukraine to Central Europe and Germany.

REBUTTAL | The US considers EU dependence on Russian oil and gas a substantial strategic problem. Europe needs to frack and drill and find other hydrocarbon resource suppliers. Frankly, NordStream has Europe by the balls.

               4. Mr. Zelensky could have secured trade agreements with all EU member states connected to the EU-US/NATO Axis.

REBUTTAL | Trade for what? The only product anybody wants is wheat, which Ukraine continues to sell on the world market.

               5. Mr. Zelensky could have secured trade agreements with the entire Russian Federation.

REBUTTAL | You are not listening to Putin: he has zero desire to "trade" with Ukraine. His frequently stated and the restated goal is to subjugate Ukraine (and Poland, Latvia, Lithuania, Estonia, and Finland…) to reconstitute the Imperial Russian Empire. Like Hitler before him, he could not be more explicit on the topic. Not understanding this is an act of willful ignorance.

REBUTTAL | The following seven (7) paragraphs are, at best, "aspirational" hyperbole with no foundation in reality.

And what an economic feast it could have been for Ukraine, located between East and West.

A natural conduit, Ukraine could have been the buffer state between the EU-US/NATO member states and the entire Russian Federation,
Managing the flow of Russia's natural resources coveted by the EU.

Ukraine could now earn $billions of new-found revenues
As a go-between between East and West.

Mr. Zelensky, your mother tongue is Russian. You are endowed with a rich education. You've read Aleksandr L Solzhenitsyn, who writes about the best and the worst of us:

"… truth eludes us as soon as our concentration begins to flag, all the while leaving the illusion that we are continuing to pursue it. This is the source of much discord. Also, truth seldom is sweet; it is almost invariably bitter."

Often when we're on the right road, we take the wrong exit that brings us to a brick wall or, worse, a slippery slope toward a ravine.

East and West are at war. Global hegemony is at stake. The people of Ukraine, serving the EU-US/NATO Axis as cannon fodder and human shields, are smack in the middle.

REBUTTAL | Nobody is forcing Ukrainians to fight for their freedom. Ukrainians willingly do it, just as the nascent United States did in 1776 and Israel does today. The US has tried nation-building (Vietnam, Afghanistan, Iraq); if citizens don't have the will to defend their freedom, no amount of rah-rah US military training and fancy NATO weapons will help.

Open Letter to President Volodymyr Zelensky

Dear Mr. Zelensky,

Have you noticed? NATO is impotent. It didn't stop Russia from invading and attacking, and decimating Ukraine.

REBUTTAL | US/NATO/EU is not fighting this war – Ukraine is, obviously, with western weapons. So far, this crummy little country is doing a splendid job of ripping the guts out of the conventional Soviet military. That's about as far from impotent as you can get.

Have you noticed? The sanctions haven't stopped Russia's resolve. They hurt, but they won't hinder Russia from securing its shipping lanes and pipelines.

REBUTTAL | Russia has been a totalitarian state for hundreds of years and is quickly regressing (a la Stalin) to despotism. Russian leaders have never viewed their populations as more than "natural resources" to be "harvested" as they please. Sanctions are, indeed, impacting the people; a painful Russian fact that is irrelevant to Putin.

REBUTTAL | Whatever happened 6-8 weeks ago to the NordStream pipeline demonstrates Russia can't "secure" its pipelines. Russia is not critically dependent on shipping lanes – most of its trade is over land or thru pipelines.

Have you noticed? You bet on the wrong horse. The United States is imploding from within – Democrats versus Republicans. The leaders of the European Union are blaming each other for cutting their fingers – stopping the flow of oil.

REBUTTAL | Frankly, the US has bigger fish to fry – China. Besides nuclear weapons, Russia is a pipsqueak, about one-third the population of the EU and about 13% of the EU GDP. The EU is staring pure evil in the face, and they have no capability or political will to defend against it. Again, the EU is dependent on the US.

Have you noticed? You have triggered a tectonic change in global geopolitics. The world needs to recalibrate its balance of power. One global policeman is not enough. Power corrupts. Absolute power corrupts absolutely.

REBUTTAL | I will reiterate what I said above:

               - not a single EU nation spends 2% of GDP on national defense. The EU depends on the US taxpayer and the blood of US sons (and now daughters) for its national defense. The EU does not have the means or political will to defend itself.

               - To the extent the EU gets upset or tired of this arrangement, it can damn well start paying for its national defense and put its sons and daughters in harm's way.

Mr. Zelensky, why do you insist on limiting yourself? Ukraine's destiny is to become the go-between between the EU and Russia.

REBUTTAL | Says who? Ukraine is a corrupt tiny shit hole that nobody (other than Biden's son) wants anything to do with. Amazingly and unexpectedly, the nation has pulled together and is fighting for its life. Bravo. But they're 100 years away from being a trusted go-between. Besides, why can't Finland perform that function?

Mr. Zelensky, peace can never come too late. Read Vladimir and Volodymyr … Rulers of Peace? Your first name in Ukrainian, Volodymyr, translates to Vladimir in Russian. Volodymyr or Vladimir means 'Ruler of Peace.' I strongly urge you and Mr. Putin to live up to your names.

REBUTTAL | Putin was born in 1953, the year Stalin died. Putin and most of the men in his immediate family were NKVD agents, and Putin was as well. This is excellent training for beating helpless prisoners with fists and clubs, but it's not the best resume for a "peace" maker.

Mr. Zelensky, stop the rhetoric and reach the noble pursuits of your Presidency. Three fingers point at you when you point your finger accusing, condemning, and denunciating Russia. You have caused millions of your fellow citizens to displace, disperse, and separate from their loved ones and caused many to shiver in the cold or die.

REBUTTAL | Zelensky's immediate job is to win his country's freedom; EVERYTHING ELSE is secondary.

               - Several times in this material, you've exhibited confusion over exactly who is causing millions of Ukrainians to "…displace, disperse, and separate from their loved ones and caused many to shiver in the cold or die…". Previously, you blamed the US; here, you blame Zelensky. Only Putin is responsible for this misery.

               - There are some things worth dying for; many Ukrainians are now heeding this call to duty, and many will die.

Sincerely,



Abraham A. van Kempen


Reaction from President Vladimir Putin (Read 'Vladimir Putin's victory day speech,' 9 May 2022.'):

"In December last year … Russia called on the West to engage in honest discussion to find fair compromises which accounted for each other's interests. All of this was in vain! They didn't want to listen to us. And this means that, in reality, they had entirely different plans, and we have seen this.

…

Let me repeat. We saw all this military infrastructure being set up. We saw hundreds of foreign advisors beginning to work and the regular deliveries of the most modern weaponry from NATO countries. The danger grew with each passing day. So, Russia launched a preemptive attack against this aggression. It was necessary, timely, and the only choice—the decision of a sovereign, strong, independent country.

REBUTTAL | As I recall, all this happened after an unprovoked Russia invaded Crimea. Of course, the Ukrainians sought help against a much larger imperialistic and totalitarian state.

Russia will never reject love for our homeland, the truth or those traditional values, the customs of our forebearers, and respect for all nations and cultures."

[Editor's note | To liberate Europe from NAZI Germany, Russia sacrificed 27 million of its noble citizens, slaughtered by the NAZIS.

REBUTTAL | It is reasonably accurate to say 27 million Russian citizens died in WWII. How noble they were is questionable. Hundreds of thousands committed suicide; hundreds of thousands more were shot by NKVD regiments to keep them from abandoning the front lines. A significant number were conscripted at the point of a gun and sent to war with no weapon (their instructions were to pick one up from a fallen comrade). We should also comment here on the cold-blooded murder of 22,000 polish military officers in the Katyn Forest…and the Russian army's practice of explicitly encouraging troops to loot and rape civilians as they marched thru Germany. Russian policy was to shoot returning Russian POWs. Of the 100,000 German POWs taken at Stalingrad, only 5,000 lived to return to Germany.

However, without a doubt, Russia achieved a massive defeat over Germany.

John Mearsheimer on Putin's Ambitions After Nine Months of War

December 08, 2022
Source: The New Yorker
https://www.newyorker.com/news/q-and-a/john-mearsheimer-on-putins-ambitions-after-nine-months-of-war

By Isaac Chotiner

Published November 17, 2022

The realist political scientist explains why Russia's move to annex four Ukrainian provinces isn't imperialism.

"What motivates him is fear of Ukraine becoming a part of NATO," John Mearsheimer says of Vladimir Putin. Photograph by Grigory Sysoyev / Sputnik / AFP / Getty

REBUTTAL | This is utter nonsense. For 17-18 years before WWII, Hitler publicly proclaimed, verbally and in writing, his racism (Jews and Slavs) and his intent to obtain lebensraum. Putin is essentially doing the same thing: for over ten years, Putin has publicly and explicitly stated it's his destiny to recreate the Imperial Russian Empire. Mearsheimer, like Chamberlain, is simply solipsistic or willfully ignorant. Either way, he's more than willing to condone, justify, or explain (whatever term you wish) the brutal totalitarian subjugation of tens of millions of free Ukrainians (they may be corrupt, but they are their own nation).

               "Back in February, a few days after Russia launched its war in Ukraine, I spoke with the political scientist John Mearsheimer.

               A longtime observer of US foreign policy—on which he has tended to cast a skeptical eye—Mearsheimer largely blamed Putin's invasion on the West, arguing that, by expanding NATO, the West had cornered Russia and made a conflict with Ukraine much more likely.

               Mearsheimer, a dedicated realist, had been making a version of this argument for some time.

               In 2014, when Putin annexed Crimea and offered support to separatists in Eastern Ukraine, Mearsheimer said that it was predominantly the fault of Europe and the United States.

               This June, a couple of months after our first conversation, against the backdrop of a war dragging on with increasing brutality, Mearsheimer said in a speech, "The United States is principally responsible for causing the Ukraine crisis."

Read more: John Mearsheimer on Putin's Ambitions After Nine Months of War – The realist American political scientist explains why Russia's move to annex four Ukrainian provinces isn't imperialism, by Isaac Chotiner, New Yorker Magazine, 17 November 2022.

World War II Begins with Forgetting

December 07, 2022
Source: The New York Times
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/12/02/opinion/america-world-war-iii.html

By Stephen Wertheim

Published December 2, 2022

Dear Abraham,

President Biden has warned that sending US forces into Ukraine would mean "World War III." But how many Americans appreciate what such a conflict would entail? Just as the United States now faces the natural and regular prospect of war with a major rival, the generation of Americans who experienced the Second World War is disappearing. Meanwhile, most citizens and leaders alive today are unused to enduring almost any hardship for foreign policy choices.

REBUTTAL | Nuclear weapons notwithstanding, Russia is not a major US rival. They are a reasonably backward kleptocracy with 45% of the US population and 9% of the US GDP. In the meantime, a tiny country is ripping Russia's conventional military apart. Certainly, NATO-class weapons help, but fighting spirit is a huge intangible component of winning wars. Ukraine's military has it; Russia's does not.

In a new article for the New York Times, I write that the United States must prepare by undertaking a national effort of historical recovery and imagination — first and foremost, to enable policymakers and the public to decide how far to go to risk calamity. With so much at stake, our leaders must raise public awareness to avoid bringing about the worst-case outcome.



Sincerely,

CARNEGIE ENDOWMENT FOR INTERNATIONAL PEACE

Stephen Wertheim
Senior Fellow
American Statecraft Program

Read more: New York Times Guest Essay, 'World War II Begins with Forgetting,' by Stephen Wertheim, New York Times, 2 December 2022

___________________________

An Anonymous Letter in My Inbox

The enormous loss dealt by Ukraine is not its own doing. The US has pulled Kyiv's marionette strings and pushed it into the war. The consequences of the Ukraine war and sanctions have been felt across Europe. Its own petard has hoisted Europe.

REBUTTAL | I pity the poor dumb son of a bitch who wrote this. The EU stares pure evil in the eye and has no idea how to proceed. Putin has repeatedly stated that he desires to recreate the Imperial Russian Empire – the EU is simply to be a part of that Empire. But, no, this fool blames it on the US.

If you dislike how the US does things, fight your own war.

Europe's economy has gone for a toss. The Euro has fallen to the lowest against the dollar in a decade. Europe's inflation has skyrocketed to the highest in the last three-four decades. The gas embargo has put millions of European jobs in jeopardy.

The political crises in Italy, North Macedonia, and Britain have highlighted the upcoming 'European spring.' Countries face the danger of their economy shrinking. Until now, Europe has been oblivious to its worries. Yet, on the horizon are signs of a recession.

Europe is on the verge of de-industrialization because of the excessive oil, gas, and power prices.

Editor's Note | I spoke with a local snack bar operator yesterday. He told me that starting in January 2023, his monthly power bill will increase from €1,100.00 to €3,100.00. Unless he receives a monthly government subsidy, his days as a snack bar operator are numbered.

REBUTTAL | Gosh! I'm almost moved to tears…until I realized Europe could quickly drill and frack for oil and gas as other grown countries do. Either that or sit in the dark and freeze, hoping the US sends you enough LNG. But, yea, subsidies will fix the problem, which is only getting worse. With Italy and Spain in the lead, the EU went broke about ten years ago. Citizens just haven't realized it yet.

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The views expressed are solely those of the author and may or may not reflect those of the Building the Bridge Foundation, The Hague.