What Will Netanyahu Do When Trump Demands Payback for the Iran War?

U.S. President Donald Trump, left, and Benjamin Netanyahu, Israel's prime minister, during a news conference in the State Dining Room of the White House in Washington, DC, September. Credit: Will Oliver/EPA/Bloomberg

Next year, according to the timetable set by President Xi Jinping, the Chinese army will complete its preparations to conquer Taiwan. Beijing will present an ultimatum to Taipei: reunification "by consent," or war.

U.S. President Donald Trump will promise to defend the island and try to assemble a wartime coalition. He will turn to European leaders for help and receive evasive responses. Then the phone will ring in the prime minister's office in Jerusalem.

"Bibi," or "Naftali," Trump will say, "I need a few fighter squadrons, Arrow anti-missile batteries, and Iron Dome units, maybe even a division or two, to save Taiwan." The prime minister will shift in his chair and try to explain that Israel has no conflict with China, that we are a small country surrounded by enemies, and that the IDF is vital for defending our borders.

"When you asked me for help against Iran you got bombers, fighter jets, aerial refueling, early warning, high-quality intelligence and coordination with the neighbors," the president will thunder. "Now it's your turn to help me. Or, as you say in your army: '20 seconds, move.'"

Israel's founder, David Ben-Gurion, dreamed of a defense pact in which America would commit to protecting Israel. Supporters of the idea pointed to strengthened deterrence, while opponents warned of losing freedom of action. Trump ended the debate in his first term when he attached Israel to the defense perimeter of the U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) alongside Egypt, Jordan, Saudi Arabia and the Gulf states.

Even without a formal defense treaty and Senate approval, the IDF became integrated into the U.S. military's regional system through commanders' meetings, operational planning and joint exercises.

The October 7 war exposed Israel's weakness: It could not "defend itself by itself against any enemy," as American administrations had long promised. Even during the administration of Joe Biden, against Hamas and Hezbollah, Israel needed emergency supplies of munitions, and to defend itself from Iranian missiles it relied on CENTCOM's early-warning and air-defense network.

U.S. refueling planes, in Israel's Ben Gurion Airport, last month. Credit: Jack Guez / AFP

Trump went further: He sent B-2 bombers to attack nuclear facilities in Iran as a complement to the Israeli operation last June, and has now launched a joint American-Israeli war to replace the government in Tehran. Reports in Israel highlighted the tight military cooperation and portrayed the CENTCOM commander, Admiral Brad Cooper, as the senior partner of the IDF chief of staff, Eyal Zamir.

Who is working for whom? In American public opinion the view has taken hold that Benjamin Netanyahu dragged Trump into an unnecessary war serving Israel and its ambition for regional hegemony. That story fits the antisemitic stereotype of Jews as warmongers – and it also suits Netanyahu, who likes to boast about his enormous influence over America.

The aircraft carrier the USS Abraham Lincoln in the Arabian Sea this month. Credit: Hannah Tross/U.S. Navy/AFP

But an opposite interpretation, no less persuasive, can also be presented: that Netanyahu harnessed the IDF and endangered Israeli civilians in a war aimed at controlling Iranian oil, to serve the interests of Trump, his associates, and their partners in Saudi Arabia, Qatar and the United Arab Emirates. Trump himself said, "If anything, I might have forced Israel's hand" to go to war, rather than being pulled into it.

Opponents of a defense pact warned that there are no free squadrons: In return for American protection of Israel, the IDF would be recruited for Washington's global wars. Those warnings seemed far-fetched when the United States downplayed its military ties with Israel out of fear of angering the Arabs.

Then Trump arrived – and instead of hiding the IDF, he is using it like a land-based aircraft carrier. When fighting together against Iran, the two countries have similar interests. But Israel would face a difficult dilemma if Trump demanded fighters for a confrontation with China, which could erupt as early as next year over Taiwan. After the joint bombings in Tehran and Isfahan, that scenario sounds far less far-fetched than it once did.