Trump Can Stop the Next War in the West Bank, but He Must Act Now

A U.S. flag hangs on the roof of Palestinian American Loui Ridi's home, which has been besieged by Israeli settlers for over a week, in the occupied West Bank village of Qusra. Credit: Majdi Mohammed/AP

The growing violence of extremist settlers in the West Bank can no longer be dismissed as a collection of local incidents committed by a handful of lawbreakers. It has become a strategic threat that can lead to another war. It is dangerous for Palestinians and Israelis, and also deeply harmful to American interests in the Middle East. It is time for the Trump administration to move from warnings to action and impose personal and financial sanctions on those carrying out the violence, as well as on the organizations that finance and enable it.

The numbers no longer allow anyone to treat this as a marginal phenomenon. According to U.N. data, more than 2,300 Palestinians have been forced out of their homes in recent months as a result of settler attacks and related access restrictions. Almost 50 Palestinian communities have been completely emptied since 2023.

While these attacks are not carried out on the direct orders of any specific politician or party, a difficult truth must nevertheless be acknowledged: When perpetrators almost never pay a price, their violence becomes a political instrument even without written orders. The trend over the past three years is unmistakable: the illegal outposts, fully supported by the extremist ministers in Netanyahu's government, continue to grow and expand, while Palestinian villages are displaced.

Anyone who knows the West Bank understands how a chain of escalation can develop from this recurring phenomenon: settlers attack Palestinians; Palestinians retaliate; Israelis are killed; the IDF launches large-scale operations; more attacks follow, and within a short time we could find ourselves facing all-out war. Extremists on both sides need each other and feed off each other.

This time there is also a particular political danger. Israel is approaching elections. A broad war in the West Bank would immediately change the public agenda, put fear and racism back at the center of the campaign, and benefit those who want Israelis to vote out of a sense of threat rather than engage in a reckoning over October 7 and the government's failures.

There is no proof, for now, that Netanyahu is planning such a war. But the possibility that a major escalation in the West Bank could serve the political interests of the prime minister and the far right should set off alarm bells in Washington.

The Trump administration can still stop this nightmare scenario. Ambassador Mike Huckabee, whom no one could accuse of hostility toward the settlements, recently condemned the settler attacks in the village of Qusra and warned that those involved could face American sanctions. His warning should become policy.

The United States should make clear that anyone who attacks civilians, burns homes and cars, steals property, kills innocent Palestinians or violently seizes land ,will risk having their assets frozen and being cut off from the American financial system.

Europe has already shown that this can be done: the European Union and individual European governments have imposed sanctions on people and organizations linked to settler violence. If the Trump administration wants to effectively combat this problem, it must do the same.

This is not a step against Israel. Quite the opposite. The United States should act because the Israeli government has failed. Preventing another intifada is clearly an Israeli, Palestinian and American interest. Trump repeatedly says he wants to be a president who ends wars rather than starts them. In the West Bank, there is still a chance to prevent the next war before it begins.

Washington should therefore send a simple message: anyone who uses violence to drive Palestinians from their land will pay a personal, financial and political price. The time to act is now.

Dr. Gershon Baskin is Director of the Middle East Program at the International Communities Organization and Co-Director of the Alliance for Two States