Analysis | Trump, Not Netanyahu, Will Decide Whether to Restart the War and Who Will Govern Gaza

U.S. President-elect Donald Trump speaks to the media during a press conference at the Mar-a-Lago Club earlier this month.Credit: Scott Olson/Getty Images/AFP

Seeing the chaos in Gaza, as a wild crowd surrounded the car carrying the three female Israeli hostages, made me think that we might be witnessing the beginning of the end. An exit from an accursed war that has shaken the lives of Israelis and Palestinians since Hamas' October 7 massacre may now be emerging: Phase one of the hostage deal has begun and could be successfully concluded in six weeks.

The transition to Phase 2 will clearly be more difficult. It is not at all clear that the leaders of either side are interested in it. And still, it could be that on Sunday we climbed the first rung of the ladder toward completing the deal and ending the war, thanks to Donald Trump's exhortations just days before he is sworn in for a second term as U.S. president.

Hamas sought on Sunday to make a show of force as the Israel Defense Forces withdraw from points of friction across the Gaza Strip and the first three hostages – Doron Steinbrecher and Emily Damari from Kibbutz Kfar Azza and Romi Gonen, who was kidnapped from the Nova music festival – were handed over to the International Committee of the Red Cross.

In the center of Gaza City, several kilometers away from where IDF troops had been operating until a few days ago, hundreds of armed activists emerged. Seemingly, Hamas was displaying both its military power and aspirations for reestablishing civilian government. But this is not yet a fait accompli; other arrangements for the future of the Gaza Strip may be on the agenda within a few months.

Tensions were high on Sunday, as expected, until the last minute when the cease-fire began to be implemented. There is no reason to assume that things will be any different in the coming weeks.

People gathering as Hamas prepares for the handover of hostages in Gaza City, Sunday.Credit: Reuters/Mahmoud Al-Basos

Whether it involved Hamas' internal communications problems due to the war, or whether it arose from the desire to engage in continued psychological abuse of the hostages' families, the organization did not meet the timetable established in the agreement, and by Saturday night had not handed over the names of the hostages due to be released.

When the delays continued into Sunday morning, Israel announced that it would not begin the cease-fire at 8:30 A.M. as planned. About two hours later, the names were finally provided, and the IDF shortly afterward ceased fire. By then, the air force had bombed several victory convoys dispatched around Gaza by Hamas' military wing. At least 14 people were reportedly killed.

The armed convoys were initially seen mainly in the southern Gaza Strip. Hamas fighters were packed into Toyota pickups of the kind that become notorious on October 7 and shot their guns into the air in expressions of joy. Hamas is investing heavily in creating a narrative of victory for the Gazan people, despite all the suffering they have endured over the past 15 months.

At this stage, it appears no mass return of displaced Gazans has begun from the Mawasi safe zone on the southern beach to northern Gaza, because the IDF has not completely evacuated the Netzarim corridor, as it is due to be implemented.

Displaced Palestinians upon their return to central Rafah in the southern Gaza Strip, Sunday.Credit: Bashar Taleb/AFP

On the other hand, traffic was already being seen in northern Gaza between Gaza City, Jabalya and Beit Hanoun, which the IDF had withdrawn from over the weekend. The minute the Israeli army evacuates Netzarim, a mass influx to the north should begin, numbering an estimated 1 million people or more. At that point, if the six-week first phase of the agreement collapses, the army will have difficulty returning there to restart the war.

The talk about resuming the war, which is supposed to happen at the end of Phase 1 in six weeks, is already mainly theoretical. The decision now lies with Trump.

The many promises Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu made to Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich to ensure that the Religious Zionism party stays in the government for the duration of the first phase are destined to clash with Trump's demands. If the American president insists that the war in Gaza must end, Netanyahu will have a hard time defying him.

Meanwhile, the details of Israel's concessions in the deal are beginning to emerge. The massive release of prisoners is provoking harsh public reactions, less because of the large number and more because of the Palestinians being released – terrorists who were involved in horrific attacks in which many Israelis were murdered during the 1990s and the second intifada in the 2000s.

A Palestinian man waves a Hamas flag near Ofer Prison near Ramallah, Sunday.Credit: Reuters/Ammar Awad

But anyone who bothered to follow the situation in Gaza, and who wasn't fooled by Netanyahu's declarations and his propaganda mouthpieces, could have guessed long ago that this would be the outcome of the war. The sad truth is that Israel largely lost the war on October 7, 2023.

All it has done since then has been to try to mitigate the damage. To reach a deal to release all the hostages, Israel had to make major concessions. The second phase of the deal will involve more senior and more murderous prisoners than those released in the first phase.

One of the main reasons for the situation we find ourselves in stems from Netanyahu's refusal to discuss any postwar arrangements in the Gaza Strip, especially any involving the Palestinian Authority.

Trump's plans, which are part of an American-Saudi-Israeli deal, may lead to an attempt to force another arrangement on Netanyahu. Since, in the eyes of his followers, Netanyahu is never guilty or responsible for anything, a huge effort on his behalf is now being invested in diversionary operations, aimed at covering the gap between his promises and the actual situation.

When mentioning the prisoners who will be released, the right immediately blames the left and the "Kaplan protest," as if they hold such influence.

People at Hostage Square in Tel Aviv, Sunday.Credit: Hadas Parush

Now, and even more than before, the IDF is also being blamed for allegedly obstructing the government on the path to complete victory. Hastening the dismissal of army Chief of Staff Lt. Gen. Herzl Halevi had come up in recent days in talks between Likud leaders, Smotrich and National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir, as part of an attempt to convince the latter two to remain in the coalition. In an interview Sunday, Smotrich called Halevi "weak in strategy" and a "defensive officer."

The message to the public is really that we will exploit the cease-fire to cleanse the top ranks of the IDF from defeatists, and then we will be able to renew the war under new management. In reality, it's just an exercise in confusing the public.

If the officers are indeed to blame for the failed war effort, the government, which formulated a stupid strategy and underestimated the danger posed by Hamas, can continue its efforts to prevent the sorely needed establishment of a state commission of inquiry.

Chief of Staff Lt. Gen. Herzl Halevi speaks at a military ceremony, last October.Credit: Ilan Assayag

Despite it all, Sunday was not at all a bad day, certainly in comparison to other days over the past two years. The cease-fire in Gaza, three hostages reunited with their families after a long period of suffering, and the national security minister resigning was a perfectly reasonable series of events considering what we have become accustomed to recently.

More important, perhaps: The most fundamental thing that cracked on the day of the massacre, and in the government's failed handling of the hostage crisis that followed, was the sense of solidarity between the state and its citizens, who were abandoned to die in the Gaza enclave. It is possible that on Sunday, with considerable delay, the process of repair began.