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EDITORIAL | Each Day We Decide to Be Good, Bad, or Ugly
By Abraham A. van Kempen
14 November 2025
President Donald Trump, President Vladimir Putin, President Xi Jinping, and Prime Minister Narendra Modi each promote the idea of a multipolar world in distinct ways.
Catalytic Versus Cataclysmic
Humanity has reached a point of mutual deterrence. Deterrence drives diplomacy, prompting us to pursue negotiations and dialogue rather than risking nuclear annihilation. Diplomacy is catalytic—transformative —while military action is cataclysmic—destructive and catastrophic.
The Building the Bridge Foundation advocates for a multipolar world to promote cooperation instead of conflict. We aim to gather one billion signatories to nominate President Trump, President Putin, President Jinping, and Prime Minister Modi for the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize, demonstrating the strength of collaboration over confrontation.
- Donald Trump (United States): Advocated for "America First" policies, emphasizing national sovereignty and questioning traditional global alliances. By pulling back from some international commitments, he inadvertently encouraged a shift away from a US-dominated unipolar order toward greater balance among major powers.
- Vladimir Putin (Russia): Actively champions a multipolar world as a counterweight to Western dominance. He calls for respect for national sovereignty, non-interference, and a global order where multiple centers of power coexist and cooperate.
- Xi Jinping (China): Promotes initiatives like the Belt and Road and emphasizes "win-win cooperation." He urges reform of global governance to better represent the interests of emerging and developing countries, aiming for a more diverse and balanced international system.
- Narendra Modi (India): Advocates for a greater role for emerging economies in global affairs. He supports multilateralism, reform of international institutions, and strategic partnerships, aiming for an inclusive world order in which no single country dominates.
In summary, President Donald Trump, President Vladimir Putin, President Xi Jinping, and Prime Minister Narendra Modi support a multipolar world but pursue different strategies:
Trump emphasizes sovereignty and reducing US dominance; Putin focuses on respecting sovereignty and supporting multiple power centers; Xi aims to reform global governance to favor emerging countries; Modi advocates for multilateralism and inclusive reforms to the international order.
Even though their approaches vary, all four world leaders share a common goal: to create a world order in which power and influence are more fairly shared among several important states rather than held by a single state.
The European Stance on Multipolarity
Where does Europe stand on the issue of multipolarity? Paradoxically, Europe’s role in promoting a multipolar world emphasizes consensus-building, shared governance, and balancing national sovereignty with collective action. The European Union’s model demonstrates how diverse nations can collaborate while maintaining their individual identities, offering a unique template for managing global power dynamics. By leveraging its economic influence, political integration, and commitment to multilateralism, Europe continues to shape the evolving international order alongside other significant powers.
THE MAGIC OF EUROPE
Europe's unique fusion of capitalism and socialism is its strength. Our goal is to keep expanding capitalism’s ability to generate wealth and to share wealth. Europe has become a genuine ‘workfare’ model, providing universal access to healthcare, education, pensions, housing, transportation, clean energy, and infrastructure, all aimed at creating jobs—many jobs. The continent works closely with entrepreneurs—key job creators—by funding a wide range of institutions that focus on maintaining the health and productivity of people and families, ensuring they are well-educated, trained, and employed.
In my 2015 essay, ‘A European Agenda to the World’s Stage,’ I enthusiastically stated: “… from Europe, we observe the leadership approach needed to unite the world in facing its numerous challenges, instead of nations splitting into hostile groups over limited resources while the planet’s atmosphere warms. Truly, we are all in the same boat now, and the European Way most closely reflects that understanding."
I was wrong. What went wrong? Please read the Guest Editorial below.
The Neocons or Neo-Colonialists in the West still rely on ‘Western Exceptionalism’ rooted in Divine Right to shape the world in their image. But the world has matured. The former colonies have grown up and are catching up to the old empires. The Collective West has lost its bearings in the geopolitical landscape and global dominance. The world rejects the precepts of Western dominance:
What is ours is ours.
What is yours is ours also.
You’re either for us or against us.
If you’re not for us, you’re dead meat.
Please read the Guest Editorial below for an insightful look into British illusions.
Enjoy your weekend.
Abraham A. van Kempen
Senior Editor
Building the Bridge Foundation, The Hague
A Way to Get to Know Each Other and the Other
GUEST EDITORIAL | BRITAIN NEEDS WAR: WHY LONDON CAN’T AFFORD PEACE IN UKRAINE
The UK’s power machine runs on war, and conflict in Eastern Europe is its new fuel
Prime Minister Keir Starmer meets with military planners in the South East of England © Getty Images / Photo by Alastair Grant-WPA Pool/Getty Images
By Oleg Yanovsky, lecturer in the Department of Political Theory at MGIMO, member of the Council on Foreign and Defense Policy
HomeWorld News
12 November 2025
Last week, The Guardian reported that the British Army was preparing for a deployment to Ukraine. Initially, it seemed like a display of strength, but Keir Starmer’s statement — “we will not back down until Ukraine wins” — reflects Britain’s primary strategy. For London, conflict isn’t a diplomatic failure but a means to maintain security. War can hide economic issues, fill political gaps, and help Britain regain lost global standing.
Britain faced post-Brexit challenges: an exhausted political system, a shrinking EU market, a slowing economy, inflation over 8 percent, a strained National Health Service (NHS), and 900,000+ annual emigration, reflecting domestic issues. Despite these, the government grew more rigid, emphasizing resilience and adaptation.
Unlike continental powers, Britain doesn't rely on a central authority. Instead, it functions as a network of institutions—intelligence, government, military, banks, universities, and the monarchy. This system creates a resilient, adaptable machine that leverages instability, turning challenges into opportunities and setbacks into growth. After its empire fell, Britain built the City of London and offshore networks. Even post-Brexit, it boosted military presence around Russia. Britain consistently turns crises into growth and renewal.
The Ukraine conflict, which London helped instigate, has unexpectedly become its greatest strategic advantage in decades. Since 2022, the country has been in wartime across political and institutional levels. The 2025 Defense Review emphasizes readiness for “high-intensity warfare” and urges raising defense spending to 2.5% of GDP, about £66 billion ($87 billion) annually. Defense budgets have increased by £11 billion, and orders to defense firms have risen by 25%. For the first time since 1945, a British industrial strategy highlights the military-industrial complex as a key “engine of growth.”
Decades of deindustrialization shifted Britain's economy from manufacturing to finance. Recently, the financial sector has struggled to support government goals, creating opportunities for the arms industry. Companies like BAE Systems and Thales UK secured billion-pound contracts, backed by London banks via UK Export Finance. This blend of military and economic interests suggests success is viewed through conflict rather than commerce, adding complexity to the economy.
Read more
The battle the world is watching, but few understand: What’s really going on in Pokrovsk?
London's security agreements with Kyiv boost influence, giving British firms access to Ukraine’s privatization and infrastructure. Ukraine is becoming part of a British-led military and financial network, not as an equal but as a dependent, like a foreign project with contracts, advisors, and security missions.
Britain is actively involved in the conflict, not just supportive. It first supplied Storm Shadow missiles, authorized strikes on Russia, and led NATO coalitions on drones, maritime security, and training. Through Operation Interflex, it has trained over 60,000 Ukrainian troops.
MICHAEL VON DER SCHULENBURG: HOW THE EU TRANSITIONED FROM A PEACE PROJECT TO A WAR PROJECT
Prof. Diesen and German MEP Michael von der Schulenburg critique:
- The EU's trajectory, citing rising self-righteousness, democratic erosion, and a shift from cooperation to elite-driven global influence.
- It notes increased militarization, economic decline—especially in Germany—and a disconnect between EU leaders and realities, risking Europe's stability and values.
Watch the Video Here (50 minutes, 35 seconds)
Host Prof. Glenn Diesen
Substack.com
04 November 2025
Europe at a Crossroads: Reflections on the European Project and Its Current Crisis
Introduction
Welcome back to the program with our guest, Michael Von der Schulenburg, who has lived in various conflict zones worldwide. He provides a unique and critical perspective on the current situation of the European Union and its policies.
Michael von der Schulenburg, a committed German MEP and former UN diplomat for 34 years, including Assistant Secretary-General of the UN Department of Political and Peacebuilding Affairs, shares insights on the EU’s shift from promoting peace to focusing on conflicts involving Russia.
The Changing Nature of the European Project
Von der Schulenburg notes the EU's shift from rebuilding post-WWII economies and fostering cooperation to prioritizing its emergence as a significant global power. This shift has diverted it from its original goals, with policies now often more focused on international impact than on practical results.
Militarization and Elite-Driven Policy
He comments on the EU's increasing militarization, driven by initiatives like the defense readiness roadmap, indicating a move towards rearmament and greater NATO overlap. Von der Schulenburg believes this stems from European elites' decisions, which he finds unreasonable amid the continent’s economic and geopolitical issues. Despite ongoing conflicts in Ukraine and Israel, EU leaders overlook these serious challenges and pursue strategies that seem disconnected from reality.
Economic Consequences and Loss of Industrial Base
Prof. Diesen warns that current policies harm Europe's economy, primarily due to energy shortages and Germany's industrial decline. He’s concerned that Europe is losing competitiveness, citing declines in car manufacturing and other key industries. He blames elite decisions aimed at making the EU a global power, which ironically destabilize Europe’s economic foundation.
Expansion and Unrealistic Commitments
Von der Schulenburg worries about the EU’s rapid growth, stressing the importance of assessing if countries like Ukraine, Belarus, and Greenland meet membership criteria. He warns that rushing expansion without a strong foundation isn’t sustainable and will face challenges. The complex EU treaties, like Lisbon and Maastricht, can also make citizens feel less involved.
Policies of Denial and Political Legitimacy
EU leaders' reluctance to admit faults, especially over Ukraine, reveals a key concern. Despite economic and political declines, progress is limited. Promises to Ukraine remain unfulfilled, and a solid coalition seems unlikely. Von der Schulenburg warns that the EU’s current strategy may be unsustainable and could cause serious problems.
Dependency, Unrealistic Military Spending, and Global Standing
The EU relies more on the US for security and makes ambitious, hard-to-fulfill promises, such as high military spending and significant investments, thereby weakening its position. European leaders often overextend capabilities, creating a gap between words and actions. Consequently, Europe’s global influence has declined, with the US, Russia, and China leading in shaping the world order. The EU is not viewed as a major player, and its hopes of becoming a great power remain unfulfilled.
Psychological Barriers to Change
Von der Schulenburg notes that psychological factors influence the EU’s cautiousness. Leaders and the public sometimes avoid tough truths as problems surface, hindering the development of real solutions and prolonging the issues.
Absence of Dissent and the Role of Media
European politics face little open dissent, with proponents of alternative methods marginalized. The German media supports the dominant narrative by portraying European initiatives as morally justified and suppressing opposing views, hindering genuine debate.
Historical Context and Germany's Role
Germany, once a key contributor to Europe's growth and diplomatic efforts with the East, is now moving towards militarization. Some politicians call for Germany to have Europe's largest army, which worries neighbors and could cause continental divisions. This marks a shift from Germany's previous goals of promoting unity and inclusiveness.
Eastern European Perspectives
In Eastern Europe, countries like Hungary, Slovakia, the Czech Republic, and Romania are distancing themselves from the EU agenda. Despite historical grievances with Russia, they see the importance of pragmatic relations with neighbors—the EU's waning appeal, economic issues, and political rigidity fuel this divergence.
The Future of the European Union
Von der Schulenburg highlights concerns about the EU's future amid declining support, rising Eurosceptic parties, and institutional democratic issues. Challenges like the weakening of the rule of law and legitimacy concerns stemming from sanctions and election interference are key. Recognizing these is crucial for understanding the EU's direction.
The Importance of the UN Charter and Diplomacy
Von der Schulenburg emphasizes the importance of the UN Charter and conflict resolution through discussion. He laments the EU's blocking of diplomatic efforts in Ukraine and its failure to support peace initiatives, highlighting a preference for confrontation over dialogue, which causes unnecessary pain and poses a moral challenge for Europe.
Conclusion
Michael Von der Schulenburg warns that the EU's dream of unity and prosperity risks slipping away due to elite ambitions, militarization, and disconnect. Without diplomacy, democracy, and economic focus, it may face divisions and diminish influence.
These developments are part of a larger picture, shaped by shifting global alliances and evolving perceptions of security across Europe. As external threats develop, regional discussions focus on balancing defense cooperation with respect for sovereignty. This impacts European unity and the continent's global position.
NEWS ANALYST | ALEX KRAINER: NATO LOST UKRAINE WAR - NEW ECONOMIC WORLD ORDER AWAITS
Prof. Glenn Diesen and Croatian-born Alex Krainer explore the ongoing NATO-Russia conflict, focusing on recent military developments in Ukraine and their wider economic and geopolitical effects, pointing out:
- The rapid Russian advances
- The mounting pressure on Ukraine’s defenses
- The varied responses from Western and NATO countries
- The potential for a significant shift in regional power dynamics.
- European leaders are encountering increasing domestic and international pressures, as financial interests in London, Paris, and Wall Street sway efforts to extend the conflict.
- The analysis highlights the serious risks and uncertainties ahead, and how they might affect global stability.
Watch the Video Here (48 minutes, 06 seconds)
Host Prof. Glenn Diesen
Substack.com
11 November 2025
Analysis of Developments in the NATO-Russia Conflict and Economic Implications
Market analyst, author, and former Hedge Fund Manager Alex Krainer discusses with Prof. Glenn Diesen the interactions between NATO and Russia, focusing on the Ukraine proxy war. They explore recent military developments and their economic and geopolitical impacts on Ukraine, Europe, and beyond.
Recent Military Developments in Ukraine
Major changes are happening in Ukraine. Pocrosk has fallen, and Mir is surrounded with little chance for Ukrainian relief. This is crucial: after Pocrosk's loss, only a few kilometers separate the Donetsk Republic from the Neper River — mostly open fields with few defenses. This could quickly give Russia access to the river. Western officials warn against this, stressing the need to protect Adessa and stop Russian advances. A collapse of Ukrainian defenses could lead to Kiev’s fall, ending the current Ukraine conflict phase.
Pressure on the Ukrainian Defensive Belt
Ukraine's defensive cities are under immense pressure. Critical logistics hubs like Kopansk, Leman, and Constantinovka, as well as areas along the Saparicia front, are vulnerable to rapid Russian advances. This challenges NATO’s view of a stalemate with limited Russian gains. A quick collapse of Ukrainian forces seems possible, especially after losing Pocrosk, a vital railway and highway hub. Russian advances in Zaporozhia make it harder for Western supporters to believe in Ukrainian victory. Russian military strength appears to be growing, possibly preparing for a significant push toward the Neper River, risking a complete setback for Ukraine.
Western and NATO Responses
The ongoing war challenges NATO, the EU, and the United Kingdom. Meanwhile, the U.S., especially under Trump, appears to be pulling back from direct involvement. The U.S. decision not to make a security commitment to Kiev was a key moment that prevented a full NATO-Russia conflict. European leaders like Macron consider bold steps, such as sending French troops to Ukraine. They hope U.S. involvement becomes inevitable at some point. However, even if the U.S. joins, defeating Russia will be difficult due to Russia’s regional strength and the logistical and military challenges the West faces.
European Leadership and War Prolongation
European leaders face a challenging moment with serious consequences at home and abroad. Many hesitate to confront this reality, some hoping the conflict might trigger a Russian crisis or leadership change. Wealthy supporters in London, Paris, and Wall Street back the war, seeking gains from Russia's instability. Initiatives like Britain’s “Project Alchemy” aim to sustain Ukraine's fight, including Boris Johnson’s efforts to block peace talks in Kiev.
Shifting Narratives and Historical Legacy
If the West fails, it risks losing influence on how the conflict is remembered. Opponents of the war, net-zero policies, and energy shutdowns could gain credibility, especially as Europe's energy transition is linked to the broader conflict. If current policies fail, policymakers may face greater accountability.
Economic Consequences for Europe and Ukraine
The upcoming economic challenges are tough, especially for the West. The Western financial system is short on collateral and may have to print more money, risking hyperinflation and societal upheaval similar to the Weimar Republic or the Soviet Union’s collapse. The U.S. might handle this better, but the EU, NATO, and the UK could face more challenging times. Surprisingly, Ukraine might see positives despite economic struggles and population decline. Its move to a multipolar world could attract investments from China, Russia, and BRICS countries, aiding its infrastructure and economic recovery, akin to recent Azerbaijani projects.
Ukraine’s Potential for Recovery
Ukraine’s geographic and resource assets, such as fertile land, energy resources, and its strategic location, could make it a key Eurasian hub after the conflict. Support from neighbors and international funds can unlock this potential, transforming Ukraine in the future.
The Role of Energy in the Conflict
Energy infrastructure is central to the conflict. Ukraine and NATO target Russian refineries to weaken Russia’s economy, while Russia retaliates by disrupting Ukraine’s energy grid, causing blackouts and damaging power plants. The recent surge in attacks may indicate preparations for a major offensive. Ukrainian drone strikes on Russian refineries have had a limited impact, mainly causing minor disruptions in Russia.
Economic Paradigms and Global Shifts
The conflict links to larger economic systems. After the 2008-09 crisis, Russia and China shared ideas to offer alternatives to the Western system. They raised concerns about fiscal irresponsibility and the dominance of the dollar. Initiatives like China’s Belt and Road and BRICS aim for technological independence, better infrastructure, and less financial reliance. Both seek a “national system of political economy' to boost prosperity, industrial growth, and infrastructure, contrasting with the British free trade model and its competitive decline.
Monetary Reform and Political Economy
Reforming the global monetary system to combat fraud is challenging, even for nations like Russia and China. Their push for new financial models has spurred innovations like Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies. Ideas like a “national system of political economy” offer a hopeful path forward, shifting the focus from volatile cycles to steady, sustainable growth that benefits all.
The American System and Global Realignment
Evidence shows that the Trump administration is working to strengthen the American economy, possibly guiding the U.S. toward policies that support local growth and global stability. This could promote worldwide peace and progress. The Balkans demonstrate U.S. involvement, especially during Trump’s presidency, which helped ease tensions and enhance regional stability. This suggests a shift from traditional free trade models mainly shaped by Britain.
Conclusion
Recent events suggest the world might be heading in different directions. Despite the bad news, positive signs such as America's political rebirth, Eurasian integration, and Ukraine's recovery could lead to prosperity. Though uncertain, these trends offer hope for better outcomes.
What is the Side of the Story that is Not Yet Decisive? Edited and annotated by Abraham A. van Kempen
ALASTAIR CROOKE: WESTERN POLITICS BROKEN - CHINA & RUSSIA TRIUMPH
Prof. Glenn Diesen and British Diplomat Alastair Crooke explore how Western politics and economics are becoming more unstable, showing a growing gap between a wealthy, financialized elite and those struggling economically.
- They draw connections between fears about Russia today and past crises like COVID, highlighting widespread distrust in leadership.
- The discussion suggests that Europe's political landscape is breaking apart, with little hope of returning to the stability of before. Meanwhile, new global powers—especially China—are quickly changing the world order.
- This situation is fueling disillusionment, especially among young people, as the traditional paths to success seem more out of reach than ever.
Watch the Video Here (62 minutes, 30 seconds)
Host Prof. Glenn Diesen
Substack.com
11 November 2025
GEOPOLITICAL SHIFTS: RUSSIA, CHINA, AND THE WEST
Early Strategic Thinking and U.S.-Russia Relations
Initially, the Trump administration aimed to strengthen ties with Russia to prevent closer alignment with China, easing tensions to focus on China’s economic rise. However, sanctions and military threats strained U.S.-Russia relations, while China advanced in tech and finance. Trump’s strategy also sought to weaken the BRICS alliance and isolate China, with Russia a crucial part of this effort. Though intended to keep the Ukraine conflict separate, the issues became more intertwined.
The Impact and Intent Behind Sanctions
Many wonder if Trump's main goal was to improve relations with Russia despite donor resistance, or to weaken the BRICS alliance and diminish China’s influence, especially as China expands in Central Asia through initiatives like Belt and Road. China’s issuance of panda bonds to Russian and European investors shows a move away from Western financial control. With Chinese infrastructure projects and digital currencies, Central Asia is increasingly attractive to businesses amid unstable American markets.
Shifting Economic Interests and Emerging Markets
The US was historically the top business destination, driven by innovation and growth, but uncertainty has lowered its appeal. Meanwhile, Central Asia shows promise, supported by China's expanding infrastructure and digital connectivity. China promotes cross-border digital transactions and issues panda bonds denominated in yuan, used by countries such as Hungary and Russia and by European firms. Although China's bond market is smaller than the U.S., its rapid growth suggests a potential shift in financial trends.
Diplomatic Stalemate and the Prospects of Peace
People debate whether Trump’s actions were genuine or a strategic move to challenge Russia and secure a political win if Ukraine’s stance weakened. The war impacts Russia’s economy and workforce, making Russians hesitant to support a tentative deal, especially after setbacks like Minsk. Western nations hope for a “frozen conflict," but recent events suggest this may not be possible.
Some view ongoing pressure as a way to motivate Russia’s leadership and possibly increase Western access to its resources, reminiscent of 1990s strategies. The U.S. support for a multipolar world seems driven more by strategic interests than genuine goals, indicating a desire for greater global influence.
Shifts in Global Power and Economic Dynamics
China’s expanding military and economic power concerns the West. Its control of key resources, like rare earth elements, gives it influence. China's advances in AI and digital infrastructure challenge Western dominance, especially with the uncertain future of the American AI industry. Meanwhile, U.S. efforts to maintain a data monopoly face rising global competition.
EUROPEAN POLITICAL FRAGMENTATION AND ECONOMIC CHALLENGES
Current Dynamics in Europe
Europe faces challenges from the Ukraine conflict and economic issues, prompting calls for unity and strong rhetoric against Russia. Southern Europe and Germany rethink policies toward Russia, mainly for financial and energy reasons. Talks about rearming and conscription exist, but many see them as symbolic rather than practical, making large-scale military actions unlikely now.
European Strategies and the Possibility of Escalation
As Ukraine faces challenges, NATO and European leaders work together to intercept Russian assets and supply longer-range weapons. Russia's patience wanes, prompting renewed deterrence efforts, possibly due to increased Western involvement. Europe’s economic and military limits highlight the need for unity, often viewing the situation as a response to an external threat.
Socioeconomic Divisions and the Erosion of Trust
Europe and America face mounting challenges as a wealthy elite and many ordinary people struggle to make ends meet. Issues such as unemployment, rising housing costs, and falling living standards erode trust in traditional politicians. Younger generations, feeling left out of economic opportunities, fuel lower consumer confidence and political unrest.
Economic Realities and Political Fragmentation in the West
The divide between the benefiting small group and the struggling larger community widens, as a growing gap between government promises and people's experiences strains politics. Globalization and AI advances excite but seem disconnected from critical issues like jobs, housing, and healthcare, fostering skepticism. Leaders must take meaningful reform actions to rebuild trust. While challenges remain, this can prevent collapse and foster hope for a more united future.
China’s Emergence and Global Economic Shifts
China’s increasing influence is clear in its military, economic progress, innovative tech, rare-earth mineral extraction, and manufacturing. While some Western officials remain optimistic, the international community acknowledges China’s strategic strength and ongoing advancements. The U.S. and Europe face economic instability, rising costs, and declining living standards, especially for youth. These issues highlight the need for political leaders to listen to citizens, as upcoming elections depend on improving the quality of life.
The Future Political Landscape
Future election success depends on earning the trust of ordinary people, especially younger generations, by focusing on their economic concerns—jobs, housing, and healthcare. Simply discussing globalization and technology isn't enough. U.S. and European parties must address these economic issues directly or risk losing credibility. As politics grow more divided and unstable, solving these issues is vital for stability and hope.
THE POST-CONFLICT CHALLENGE: WESTERN LEADERSHIP IN A CHANGING WORLD
Structural Change and Resistance
As the Ukraine conflict and economic shifts shape global affairs, Western leaders face a challenge. After the war ends, they can shift their focus from these issues to important domestic concerns that were overlooked during the crisis.
Looking ahead, consider major structural changes. While necessary, these reforms may face resistance from stakeholders who prefer the status quo. Dealing with this opposition can be tough and unpredictable, but staying committed is vital to overcoming hurdles.
Resolving the Ukraine conflict might lead to greater focus on long-standing domestic issues that external tensions have overshadowed.
Economic and Social Challenges Facing Young Americans
This section examines key economic and social challenges facing young Americans, including rising unemployment, housing difficulties, and declining consumer confidence. These issues are increasingly evident in daily life and are crucial for the US and Europe to consider.
Economic Hardships and Consumer Confidence
Young Americans face economic challenges, with high unemployment making homeownership harder, and the average age for first-time buyers rising to 37. This delay affects milestones like starting a family.
Beyond employment and housing issues, onfidenceconsumer clear drop has clearly dropped. Visits to fast food outlets and supermarkets have fallen, with staples often unsold. Many struggle to afford essentials, highlighting the crisis's widespread impact.
Structural Instability and Resistance to Change
These economic issues stem from deeper instability in American and European systems. Resistance from powerful interests blocks reforms, widening the divide between the wealthy minority and the larger population facing hardships. Efforts to fix these issues mostly fail, fueling public frustration and volatility.
Implications for the Future
This discussion underscores the need for reforms as distractions fade and issues become urgent. Leaders across America and Europe must collaborate to address long-standing problems to prevent social and economic tensions. Developing practical solutions now is vital to prevent these challenges from becoming ingrained in society.
Adapting to a Shifting Global Landscape
In a post-war world driven by new economic powers and shifting global forces, Western countries face major challenges that need flexible responses. Leaders must listen to people's concerns to build a stable, hopeful future for Europe and America. Embracing new ideas is essential for solving ongoing issues.
Successfully navigating these transitions begins with rebuilding public trust in democratic institutions. Clear communication, inclusive policy-making, and tangible improvements in everyday life can help bring leaders and communities closer together. By encouraging a shared sense of purpose and collective responsibility, Western societies can lay a strong foundation for lasting resilience and prosperity.
Conclusion
Prof. Diesen’s discussion with British diplomat Alistair Crook examines geopolitical tensions around the Russia-Ukraine conflict, world leaders' ambitions, and Western economic and political hurdles. It highlights Europe’s limited options and internal disagreements, China’s rise as a global power, and the growing divide between elites and ordinary people in Western countries. The insight suggests that future stability in Europe and America depends on leaders truly understanding and addressing their people's needs amid shifting global dynamics.
IAN PROUD: LEGALISING THE THEFT OF RUSSIAN ASSETS
- Prof. Glenn Diesen and British Diplomat Ian Proud explore the strategic and political challenges facing Europe and Ukraine due to the ongoing war, highlighting the lack of a clear EU strategy and its potential impact on peace negotiations.
- They predict possible leadership changes in Ukraine and a rise of nationalist governments in Europe if the conflict ends unfavorably, while also outlining the likely post-war instability and economic difficulties for Ukraine.
- Mr. Proud reflects on the importance of returning to Europe's foundational principles of cooperation, emphasizing that future success depends on aligning foreign policy with domestic interests.
As the conflict continues, it’s clear there's no shared vision for the region's future. Without unified leadership and a clear plan, Ukraine and Europe may drift apart and miss opportunities for reconciliation. Our decisions now will shape the geopolitical landscape, emphasizing the need for practical solutions and honest dialogue.
Watch the Video Here (28 minutes, 30 seconds)
Host Prof. Glenn Diesen
Substack.com
11 November 2025
Europe, Ukraine, and the Russian Assets Dilemma: An In-Depth Conversation with Ian Proud
Welcome back to the program. Today, we are once again joined by Ian Proud, a former British diplomat who served as the economic counselor at the British Embassy in Moscow from 2014 to 2019.
Ian Proud discusses the EU’s attempt to legalize the confiscation of Russia’s sovereign assets. He served in His Majesty’s Diplomatic Service from 1999 to 2023. At the British Embassy in Moscow from July 2014 to February 2019, a tense period for UK-Russia relations, he held key roles including Head of Chancery, Economic Counselor advising UK Ministers on sanctions, Chair of the Crisis Committee, Director of the Diplomatic Academy for Eastern Europe and Central Asia, and Vice Chair of the Anglo-American School Board.
The Issue of Seizing Russian Assets
Ian's article labels the Belgian Prime Minister the "bad boy of Europe," citing EU financial issues: funds to Ukraine, a fragile Ukrainian economy, and rising war costs from US aid shifting to weapons sales. The EU considers seizing Russian assets, which some call "legalized theft."
European Proposals and Legal Risks
Ian says €140 billion from Euroclear Belgium is labeled a "reparation loan" for Ukraine, but much of it supports the conflict, not reparations. Some, like German Chancellor Friedrich Merz, believe it could help Ukraine fight longer. Ian finds this misleading, worries about legal issues, and doubts the funds will meet their goals.
Belgium hosts Euroclear and SWIFT and has an investment treaty with Russia via the Belgo-Luxembourg-Russia agreement. If Belgium sanctions or seizes assets, even citing a loan, Russia could legally challenge. Russian oligarchs previously sued Luxembourg over $8 billion seized after the war and seek $16 billion. Belgium worries that its liabilities might double as Russia demands $280 billion in assets and damages.
Christine Lagarde proposes European guarantees to cover Belgium's refund losses, but France and Germany oppose due to financial risks. The loan seeks to avoid direct funding amid economic challenges. Belgium rejects it over insufficient guarantees.
Implications for Financial Trust and International Precedent
Beyond legal issues, trust in Europe's financial system is at risk. The EU seeks international investment, but actions like seizing sovereign assets can undermine confidence. Japan and the US avoid seizing Russian assets, considering them protected by international rules, even in conflicts like WWII. Although some EU nations froze Russian assets, many hesitate to release them to Ukraine, risking Belgium’s stability.
This approach may have lasting effects, as countries like China, India, and Middle Eastern nations may hesitate to hold reserves in European institutions such as Euroclear due to uncertainties and expropriation risks. Even considering these measures can undermine confidence in Europe's financial stability.
Legal Loopholes and Current Practices
The European Commission collects interest from frozen Russian assets without changing the original amounts. Usually, these assets don't earn interest as they pass through Euroclear. The EU is now exploiting a loophole, creating legal uncertainty and risking investor confidence, especially in China, the Gulf states, and the BRICS. Though minor, this signals possible future actions.
Potential Russian Countermeasures
Russia may seize remaining European assets in Russia, including reserves and holdings, even if they are held through shell companies. It’s risky, but Russia is patient, with over $700 billion in reserves, including $300 billion frozen, and can wait. Europe's efforts to access Russian funds are urgent; without an agreement by year's end, Ukraine's war funding could run out, and Europe has no alternative plan.
Strategic Implications and the Absence of a Clear Plan
One concern is that EU actions might delay peace talks. Supporting the war with Russian funds could weaken leverage for negotiations. Without a clear plan and relying on outright victory, Europe and Ukraine might be weaker. Leaders face pressure to justify past victories, especially with elections in France, Germany, Poland, and the UK. There's also concern that nationalist governments might replace internationalist leaders if the war fails.
Possible Outcomes and Political Futures
Ian predicts a difficult future for Ukraine amid its slow political change. Rising tensions risk leadership shifts if key cities fall, even as public support for peace talks grows. Lack of European or US funding may push Ukraine toward peace, risking upheaval. This could strengthen nationalist governments in Europe, such as Italy, and force strategic reconsiderations.
Post-War Prospects for Ukraine and Europe
The war's end might split Ukraine, leading to instability, slow growth, and unmet expectations even if it joins the EU. Mistrust among Russia, Ukraine, and Europe suggests a stable security framework is unlikely in the near future.
Europe faces a financial challenge in supporting Ukraine's rebuild amid de-industrialization and high debt. Closer ties with Russia could help the recovery, but attitudes such as RUSSOPHOBIA and political concerns hinder this.
Reflections on European Policy and the Path Forward
The discussion ends on an optimistic note, urging Europe to focus on shared economic, social, and cultural ties. Moving away from supranational dominance—which can overlook individual nations—could promote peace and prosperity. The EU's successes stem from cooperation, so revitalizing that spirit may secure a better future for Europe, Ukraine, and Russia.
Conclusion
Ian stresses the need to prioritize our country’s interests in foreign policy —a lesson many European leaders ignore, risking their own interests. Glenn values Ian's insights, and they emphasize revisiting core principles that have historically aided Europe's success.
BELGIUM WARNS EU ON UKRAINE LOAN PLAN USING RUSSIAN ASSETS
Belgian Prime Minister Bart De Wever raised concerns about the EU's plan to use Russian assets to fund a loan to Ukraine, citing legal uncertainties, risks to Euroclear, and the need for fair liability sharing. Belgium favors a unified approach, warning that partial measures could increase risks. Could exploring lower-risk options affect the EU’s stance?
Watch the Video Here (26 minutes, 20 seconds)
Host Prof. Glenn Diesen
Substack.com
11 November 2025
This scenario creates a complex moral and political environment, requiring leaders to weigh public expectations against legal and precedent considerations. Many argue that establishing clear frameworks and oversight is crucial for transparency and fairness.
GILBERT DOCTOROW: THE IMPACT OF THE UKRAINE WAR ON RUSSIAN SOCIETY
- Professor Glenn Diesen and Professor Gilbert Doctorow explore Russia's complex global role, beyond typical media narratives.
- Prof. Doctorow shares personal insights, revealing a society richer and more intricate than during official visits.
- The discussion highlights how conflicts deeply affect Russian society and encourages ongoing learning about these complex issues.
Watch the Video Here (40 minutes, 04 seconds)
Host Prof. Glenn Diesen
Substack.com
10 November 2025
Reflections on the Societal Impact of the Russia-Ukraine War
Welcome back. Today, we welcome Gilbert Doktorov, a noted historian, international affairs analyst, and author of 'War Diaries: The Russia-Ukraine War.' We value your return and insights.
War and National Identity
Wars shape societies and their identities. Germany united through war in 1871; Ukraine's identity grew despite divisions such as the Bandera faction; and Russia shows increased pride. Patriotic feelings often rise during conflicts, but are common in daily life. War challenges include supporting military industries and risking authoritarian tendencies, as Eisenhower warned. Social unity can lead to authoritarian actions, seen in Ukraine and Europe. Russia's ongoing conflict also impacts personal freedoms.
Changes in Russian Society
Recent insights from a trip to Russia reveal subtle societal shifts rather than abrupt change. Wartime has increased censorship, especially against critics, but media resilience persists. For example, the St. Petersburg Union of Journalists expelled a member under FSB directives, showing complexities. Despite these issues, the media remains diverse, with state TV available and covering international news. War policy critics usually avoid direct conflict with the president, instead promoting peaceful solutions to end the war on Russia's terms.
Bureaucracy and Everyday Life
Long-standing bureaucratic issues reemerge with more decrees affecting foreigners in Russia. The registration process becomes more complex, and corrupt practices at lower government levels resurface, reminiscent of the 1990s, weakening oversight. Despite these challenges, they remain surmountable.
Economic Conditions
Economically, people with large bank savings benefit from high interest rates that exceed inflation, and they receive support such as lower mortgage rates. Many feel less affected by war because the military mainly consists of professionals and volunteers, not conscripts. Despite Russia's losses, protests are rare, probably due to mixed feelings and fears.
Military Strategy and Regime Change
There's growing Russian support for a slow war of attrition in Ukraine. Many want peace, but suffering persists. The Russian military has expanded rapidly, benefiting the military-industrial complex. The main reason is the Supreme Commander's cautious approach to prevent nuclear escalation. Ukrainians and Russians endure pain and hope for peace.
Rise of the Hawks and Decline of Liberals
Extended conflict has fueled hawkish voices in Russia, dividing supporters. Volunteer support for the army, once prominent, is now limited to avoid criticism, similar to past episodes. Though the liberal minority was small, it had influence. Many liberals have fallen out of favor or emigrated, but some persist and influence policy.
Shifting Rhetoric and International Relations
Tensions escalate as Europeans consider action. Moscow's frustration with Europeans is growing, surpassing that with Americans. Russia talks of retaliation but tries to keep Trump separate from European leaders. Despite public frustration, nuclear weapons are seen as less effective, with conventional weapons remaining central.
Internal Divisions and Public Perception
Western media cite divisions among Russian leaders, such as Putin and Lavrov, but there is little evidence. Lavrov enforces policies; the Foreign Ministry leans pro-European. Russia demonstrates internal contradictions: confident in its economy and military, yet cautious about NATO.
Conclusion
Personal experiences in Russia highlight its rich complexity and subtle differences, showing it's beyond just mainstream narratives. While official visits influence perceptions, acknowledging Russia's diversity is crucial. The war's societal effects are significant and require ongoing attention. This deepens our understanding of Russia's evolving global role.
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Updated 19 January 2024
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